Today seems like a good time to consider the results of some public opinion polls. I’m going to try to make this a dry recitation of facts with as few opinions as possible.
1. President Trump’s presidential approval rating is the highest of his presidency.
According to Gallup’s most recent findings that approval rating is 49%. That’s higher than President Obama’s was at this point in his presidency, outside the margin of error, and about the same as President Bush’s was at that point.
2. If the election were held today and we elected presidents at large, he would be likely to win against any of the Democrats presently seeking their party’s nomination.
According to the latest Economist/YouGov survey present opinion suggests, by margins of greater than 19 points, that Trump is likely to win:
3. The econometric models of presidential election outcomes support Trump’s re-election.
Ray Fair’s model and the three different econometric models from Moody’s all forecast that Trump will be re-elected. If people vote their pocketbooks, as they have during the post-war period, Trump will be re-elected.
4. The betting markets favor Trump’s re-election.
5. The election will not be held today and we do not elect presidents at large.
The election is still more than eight months away, God help us. And the Electoral College still elects the president. The statistics I would really like to see are the opinions of people in the states that Trump carried in 2016. Said another way the Democratic candidate whoever he or she might be could carry every state that Hillary Clinton did in 2016 by larger margins than Hillary Clinton secured and still lose the election if unable to switch any states from Trump to themselves.