We appear to be in a fallow period for opinion writing not because nothing is happening but because very little being said is worth responding to. Most of my posts are reactive in nature, that is, I am reacting to something I have read. Right now very few are writing anything I find worth reacting to.
I’ve said my piece about the war in Iran. The objectives may be just. The initiation was not. And if just ends cannot be achieved by just means, the war itself is unjust.
I don’t disagree that our immigration laws were themselves enforced unjustly on occasion. Sadly, human beings being what they are that is true of all laws. No serious immigration regime can rely solely on border enforcement; interior enforcement is unavoidable. And once you accept that, some degree of unjust application is inevitable. That is the dilemma critics rarely confront. Given those realities I have serious reservations about the Democrats’ opposition to funding ICE.
I have yet to see proposals that genuinely increase affordability only ones that defer costs. Any plan built on subsidies without corresponding taxes simply pushes the burden forward. To truly increase affordability we cannot transfer our problems to our heirs.
I could go on but you get the point. What’s missing are neither anxiety nor activity but proposals that survive first contact with reality
“And once you accept that, some degree of unjust application is inevitable. ”
Sure, I think everyone accepts that. However, what we are seeing are ICE agents shooting people needlessly, abusing them needlessly, no inspections of holding sites, arresting and detaining people for hours or days who are US citizens, hiding behind masks and anonymity which isn’t done by any other law enforcement agency in the US or the free world as far as I can tell. It’s kind of like fining someone for jaywalking or executing them on the spot. The person broke the law but was the punishment appropriate.
As to Iran, how is the blockade supposed to help? If they were willing to tolerate extensive bombing do we really think they cave over a month or two of blockade? If we blockage longer how does that affect some nominal allies or countries we seem to want to have good relations with like S Korea, India the EU? What does it do to US gas prices and inflation and how long will we tolerate it?
“It’s kind of like fining someone for jaywalking or executing them on the spot.”
Hyperbole much?
“..how is the blockade supposed to help?”
Weeks ago I noted that the strategy was obvious: to sequentially degrade Iran’s ability to influence events. Kill the Navy. Kill the Air Force. Minimize the missiles. And then choke them. And now the choking is starting in earnest. The Straights. The blockade.
Iran has already lost the ability to launder money through Dubai. Their defenses are nil; and military hardware help from Russia gets destroyed in days, if not hours. Their warmaking manufacturing base, and distribution systems needed to run the country, could be eliminated on que. The underwater mines threat has been degraded.
Dave made a comment a while ago that someone had overestimated their leverage. That would be Iran. No oil out, Iran? OK. No gas or gasoline in. Those trucks and rocket launchers run on sand? Or selling oil out. The oxygen called cash is being eliminated from the Iranian regime’s air.
So why the delays for the negotiations? Why the hopeless notion of sincere negotiation? Humanitarian considerations? Perhaps in part. I mused that China was pleading for time for naked self interest. That is now known to be true. Jack Keane has reported that in addition, the time for Gulf states to establish material alternative routes (especially the pipeline; now fully functional) was either overestimated, or intentionally overestimated. In either case, the Iranians are now chokeable without what they perceived as their ace card. Its actually the joker. And how long has it taken them to respond? 48 hours?
But they aren’t yet serious. 5 years? Nope. The Russians to hold enriched uranium for “safekeeping?” Laughable.
Iran can’t pay the rank and file. They can’t respond militarily. They can’t rebuild. They can only hunker down and attempt to survive. I’d love to be an insider and understand why arms cannot be supplied in volume to an uprising. That would be it, game set and match. But despite that, for now, the remaining regime, impotent except for domestic murder, and spread out all over the country, is going to wither away whether they admit it or not. All because of the blockade.
The Iranian’s self-perceived economic and political advantage of the focal point of The Straights has been turned 180 degrees against them. Jujutsu if one has ever seen it.
“I have yet to see proposals that genuinely increase affordability only ones that defer costs. Any plan built on subsidies without corresponding taxes simply pushes the burden forward.”
Here in the Southeast states continue to lower income taxes, seeking other, probably more efficient, revenue sources. Of course, you don’t hear much about free buses or how public sector pensions need to be enhanced. And yet, SC, NC, GA, FL, TN, and, more recently, AL, are doing fine. Its the Big Blue Cities – NYC, Philly, Balt, Chicago, LA, SF that are bringing things down. And we all know who, and who’s policies, run those places.
Affordability will not happen overnight, but it can be done. It rests upon a strong and diversified economic base (read: limited regulation and free exchange), minimization of the costs of pervasive inputs (read: energy and food) and minimizing the burden of forking over your pay to the state (read: endless overpriced “public services,” fraud, and unproductive immigrants.) Throw in health care based upon insurance concepts and not maintenance concepts and you will have a different picture.
PS – I throw in education cost under the buckets of public services and free exchange. More electricians, fewer subsidized gender studies grads.
You were probably aware of this, Dave. I was not. He is a favorite read. It struck home for me, as I am just now almost fully recovered from a TAVR procedure and now in the queue for a Watchman. I’d consider the TAVR 100% successful, and no real complications. But its been quite an experience to fully recover. Mr Kass must have some real issues.
https://johnkassnews.com/fighting-through-another-stroke-at-easter/
“Hyperbole much?”
Ask the two who got shot in Minnesota? (They are dead so I guess you cant.)
Anyway, 99% of shipping through the strait was stopped and now it’s 100%. Iran will suffer but so will the rest of the world including the US. From the Iran POV they already have a lot sunk costs and they have been living under sanctions except for a year or two since 1979. The negative effects wont be borne by the regime but by ordinary people. We, apparently, are still hoping the people will overthrow the regime but really, this is just us again hoping we will be greeted as liberators, after we bombed the heck out of them and killed thousands. It didnt work anywhere else but maybe it will be different this time.
What it comes down to is who can tolerate economic hardship longer? The US and the rest of the world, or Iran. One has to suspect that China and India are the winners here unless Iran suddenly decides to cave. They can provide a lot of Iran’s needs by overland routes in exchange for discounts on future oil sales.
Steve
How many people were shot and killed by ICE officers in non-“sanctuary” jurisdictions?
I agree that federal law enforcement agencies including ICE should adhere to the law. I also think that federal laws should be enforced including in jurisdictions that don’t want them to be enforced.
I’m not saying there won’t be temporary hardship, Steve. But you just put up straw men. Both short and long term Iran had to and must be dealt with. The costs/pain of kicking the can far exceed these costs today. And just look at the hysterical response to today’s hardship. ( at an oil price seen during the Biden years). BTW – the govt and the IRGC are showing a pronounced fissure.
The way for Trump to botch this is to fall into the trap of the last 50 years, believe the hardliners, and not finish this off at the governance level. He must choose the better of two bad options. The benefit to the world economy will be enormous.
Let’s follow that line of reasoning. Suppose Iran concedes every point to Trump. What’s different for the US? Nothing. Iran has held large amounts of enriched nuclear material back to at least 2000. They havenever made a bomb and no one has ever found evidence, other than Israel, that they were going to make one. So we were at no risk of being nuked before and will still be after. Bears in mind that the same people who claimed Saddam had WMD are the ones making claims about Iran. Next, Iran cant make long range missiles. Ok, looking at the history of Iran killings of US citizens they have, by my search and per Chat GPT, never killed an American on North American US soil. The huge majority are killings of US soldiers on ME soil or diplomats. Again, essentially zero benefit for us.
As they wont have nukes per the deal why would they even launch conventional weapons at us? To what end? So the only real advantage I am seeing here is that maybe in the future when we invade or attack our next ME country Iran wont be able to join in.
Really, the only beneficiary is Israel. Iran, for whatever reason, decided to be the protector of some Muslims and has acted against Israel’s attempts to take over the entirety of the holy lands all the way to the river and maybe beyond. If Iran gives up missiles and supporting its proxies there is no countervailing force to stand against Israel which will own all that land from the river to the sea, where Muslims will no longer be free.
Steve