After recounting what European leaders have been doing, Thomas Fazi gives his answer to the title’s question at UnHerd:
I see three options, all equally alarming.
The first is that European leaders have started to believe their own propaganda and are truly convinced Russia is bent on attacking Europe. If this is the case, it risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy: Putin would view an increase in defence spending as a sign of a growing threat. The second explanation is that Europe’s leaders know that Russia is unlikely to invade, but are raising this phantom threat to justify the continuation of the proxy war in Ukraine, as part of a wider strategy aimed at containing the Russo-Chinese challenge to the US-centric system. The third possibility is that the continent’s leaders have simply gone bonkers and are deliberately trying to precipitate a war with Russia, for reasons unfathomable to sane-minded people.
I think it’s a combination of his first and second explanations but it’s the first that should concern us. I don’t believe that Russia is preparing to invade Poland but I do think it could be pushed to doing so. The typical “look what you made me do” explanation is disheartening.
I don’t believe that Russia has no agency but do believe that we have agency, too.
I think the sole moral reason to support Ukraine is for the Ukrainian people. Consistent with that I think that if the U. S. objective was to hurt Russia and the Russian economy, that was immoral because it was treating people (the Ukrainians) as means rather than as ends. Note also that objective has flopped. The other possible objective, to sunder the growing ties between Russia and Germany, has been a resounding success. Whether it will stick or not as the costs to Germans increase as they will I can’t tell you.
So if the Europeans dont increase NATO spending Trump pulls us out of NATO and if they do increase spending Russia might attack more places because more spending is threatening. Of course if we leave NATO and NATO keeps its spending low that practically invites Russia to attack.
Steve
Shorter version of steve’s response: Russia should never be concerned about NATO because reasons.
In the 20th century alone Poland, the United States, Germany, and Italy all invaded Russia. Add the 19th century and Britain, France, and Turkey all invaded Russia, too.
Better, short version. Anything we do justifies Russia attacking.
Steve
Different version:
Russia, and Putin, are revanchist, on the move, and if it were not for their nukes NATO would roll them back to their borders tomorrow.
This comes down to just three options for Europe.
Capitulate in Ukraine and hope that’s It.
Call Putin’s bluff and roll on Russia.
Or make idle threats and hope for the best.
European leaders are making idle threats.
Obvious version.
That’s truly intellectually light, Steve.
Sadly, that has a way of happening when you start making mistakes 75 years ago and keep doubling down on your errors. It forecloses other alternatives and eventually you have no alternatives left.
Bring in Obama as Russian ambassador.
The reset button was a big hit in the Kremlin.
I’m pretty sure stalling for time and hoping for a Black Swan is the best option.
Of course always being prepared at the same time.
Of course the Black Swan could be the Ukrainians striking deep inside Russia who could mistake that for a NATO attack requiring retaliation, which of course would require counter retaliation.
We can only hope that Putin doubts the reliability of his first strike capability and continues with his strategy of attrition which I believe he is confident will win out in the long term, and how long of a term does he really have?