There’s another point made in the article I cited in the previous post that I thought was worthy of a post all its own:
Here’s a prediction: The political party that controls the White House after January could, four years later, be out of power for a generation. The economic challenges are that daunting.
So, here’s my question: will the winner in November be Roosevelt or Hoover? Like Mr. Smick I think that the likelihood of the latter being the case is pretty strong.
Europe is likely to be worse off in four years than it is now. Same with China. Our recovery without recovery has now lasted 39 months. What will it be like in another 48 months?
And then there’s the legislative “cliff” waiting.
Will the winner in November be Roosevelt or Hoover?
Neither. He’ll be either Millard Fillmore (best case) or James Buchanan (worst case).
IMO the US still has a lot of inertia. My WAG (Wild-Ass Guess) is more like two election cycles, about 2020.
In 2008 I predicted a one term president because the recovery would be weak or nonexistent by now. I think that pretty much holds true. It is conceivable that things could start to turn in three years, but not much before I think.
Steve
The 1980 “Miracle on Ice” wasn’t the only miracle that year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_on_Ice
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2001/03/the-real-reagan-economic-record