A piece at Washington Monthly by Steve Waldman attempts to prepare its readers for something they may find unthinkable or at the very least unexpected—President Trump may actually be re-elected:
If the election were held today, Joe Biden would probably win. But there are strong signs that the race is much, much closer than you’d think from the news coverage. Donald Trump has a real shot at being reelected.
First, the president is actually more popular now than on the day he was elected. Yes, that’s right. His personal favorability rating around election day in 2016 was 37.5%. Now, it is 43.2%. There are, in fact, hundreds of thousands of Americans (if not millions) who have grown fonder of Trump.
He goes on to consider polling results in so-called “battleground” states:
Right now (as of 10/20), those three states are looking pretty good for Biden, especially Michigan and even Wisconsin, which once seemed like it might be the hardest of the three to get back in the blue column where it resided from 1988 to 2012. Somewhat surprisingly, Pennsylvania is still a dogfight for Biden despite nearly 50 years in politics in neighboring Delaware and multiple visits to the Keystone State this year:
Pennsylvania — +3.8
Wisconsin — +6.2
Michigan — +6.8So, remembering that Biden might need to sweep all three of those, my main cautionary note is to look at the Real Clear Politics polling averages for those states way back on October 19, 2016:
Pennsylvania: Clinton +6.2
Wisconsin: Clinton +7
Michigan: Clinton +11.6As you can see, Joe Biden is doing worse in those state polls than Hillary was. And she, of course, lost them all.
Read the whole thing. We’ve already mused about what is likely to happen should Joe Biden be elected. What will happen if Trump is re-elected? Keeping in mind that I claim absolutely no insight into the workings of the president’s mind, here’s what I would suspect:
- The Biden campaign will on the continuation of counts and recounts, either until Biden is declared the victor or the Supreme Court shuts them down. Democrats have said that’s what they’ll do and I believe them.
- There will be more outbreaks of violence in some of the more progressive cities, where it is more likely to be tolerated.
- Campaign claims to the contrary notwithstanding, federal policy with respect to COVID-19 won’t be much different whoever is elected. The greatest difference would be that President Biden’s press coverage would be more favorable than President Trump’s.
- President Trump will keep doing what he’s been doing.
- Will Justice Breyer last four more years? The actuarial tables say it’s likely. If not, President Trump will appoint yet another Supreme Court justice.
Beyond that reply hazy, try again.
Update
I forgot one thing. If Trump is re-elected but Democrats continue to hold the House, he will be impeached again. If Democrats take the Senate, he will be convicted but if Republicans hold the Senate he will be acquitted. I don’t know what happens if Trump is removed from office by being convicted.
A continued acceleration in the realignment of the two parties. Not realignment as in one party has a permanent majority or supermajority; but changes in who is in the coalitions that make up the two parties.
A much open rift between the government and big tech. The antitrust lawsuit against Google is just the beginning.
I too am not sure what goes into the decision box if Trump’s singular objective of re-election is in the rear view mirror.
Impeachment is inevitable; probably a 3rd impeachment as well.
But partisan impeachment will never result in conviction. That requires a 2/3 majority and it is very unlikely Republicans lose 20 senate seats in Nov and 2022.
A sleeper prediction; during a second Trump term, a whole sale changeover of the Democratic Congressional leadership will occur.
‘But partisan impeachment will never result in conviction. That requires a 2/3 majority and it is very unlikely Republicans lose 20 senate seats in Nov and 2022.’
It depends upon how much OMB threatens the RINOs gravy train. That’s what’s kept him in check somewhat from giving the Executive the Augean Stables cleaning it richly deserves. If he IS convicted of a BS ‘crime’ similar to what he was charged with the first time I expect a shooting war to commence shortly thereafter. Watch out for Cyrus Vance Jr. IMO he’s readying tax evasion/tax fraud October surprise.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the next impeachment will be for firing Chris Wray which I expect to happen a nannosecond after inauguration day at the latest. Firing a useless sack of s**t for sitting on exonerating evidence? The horror!
IMO a 100% guarantee: ANTIFA/BLM/MSM/Big Tech/Social Media will go completely Godzilla-level violent crazy. I could see hundreds of people dead if not more, tens of thousands of buildings torched, tens to hundreds of billions worth of damage, for Trump having the audacity to win. And OBTW he will be also be accused of running the most massive voting fraud/voter suppression scheme in the existence of the universe.
I really REALLY hope I’m wrong. Being human I’m prone to miscalculations. But better to be prepared than get tossed a grenade with the pin pulled.
Four more years of relative peace militarily, domestic acrimony, pointless, boring impeachment trials, low taxes, low gas prices, a gradual return to social normalcy, and yes, 200,000 more Covid deaths.
No matter who wins.
Gray, taxes and energy prices will certainly not be lower if Biden wins. Regulations will also be piled on as Biden tries to assuage China and Iran by capitulating to their demands, as he sticks it to small business.
As for Trump winning (fingers crossed) there will be leftists temper tantrums in larger democratically-run cities. However, ordinary citizens will feel more empowered, showIng greater overt resistance to being intimidated and/or beaten up, looted etc, and will fight back, changing some of the left/right dynamics where being a victim of Antifa/BLM violence is no longer tolerated.
Trump winning a 2nd term would also serve as validation for his policies and presidential performance, making him pursue his agenda in an even more aggressive and in-your-face fashion. Now he would be seasoned, more aware of all the untoward tactics democrats are capable of, making it possible to circumvent or deflate some of them before they arose to the heights of impeachment.
Furthermore, I don’t necessarily look at House and Senate losses as many here do, despite what polling may suggest. The GOP this year has chosen some really bright, attractive candidates in various CDs, making it very plausible they will gain seats in the House. I think the Senate might be able to hold on to a slimmer majority, too, as the momentum is trending towards republicans in this final stretch.
If all these projections become reality, we will see the ME peace agreements expand to other countries, COVID fears will level out, and more realistic “science†will be applied in sensibly opening up our economy, minority groups will finally assimilate into an equal, rather than victimized standing in this country, and there will be a social paradigm shift that is less radical and more pragmatic. The backdrop to these changes will be rocky. However, I think the American spirit, behind the formation of our Constitutional Republic, will be reignited bringing people back to appreciate and want to grow what we have, rather than demolish it for an unrealistic utopia illusion.
” The greatest difference would be that President Biden’s press coverage would be more favorable than President Trump’s.”
Nope. The greatest difference is that we wont have some no nothing idiot citing conspiracy sites for how to deal with Covid. No more this drug or that drug is a cure with zero evidence. No more spreading false information about masks. Maybe we might even have a nationally coordinated effort if we have a resurgence. We might have leadership rather than someone saying he has no responsibility.
Violence fears way overblown. Typical GOP playing to people’s fears. Have to maintain that fear of brown people. Right wing extremists haver killed far more people, but they are usually white so no one cares.
We will see even more corruption since he will have no worried about re-election. GDP will creep along just as it did in his first years, but now starting at a worse base. Our debt will continue to increase rapidly. He will continue to rave about China but we still wont have good jobs returning here and our trade deficits will continue to increase. The GOP has little interest in science, just ideology, so I wouldnt expect any increases in basic research. Health care gets ignored for another 4 years. Finally, conservative continue to whine about their victimhood for another 4 years even if he does win.
Steve
It appears federal spending on basic research has risen in real dollars during the Trump administration.
While it’s down as a percentage of GDP, and Federal research spending is lower as a percentage of total research spending, it’s unfair to suggest that the administration is anti science, especially since it’s difficult to track where all those dollars go and basic research, as opposed to targeted research, has no metric to determine the appropriate level of funding.
https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2019/nsf19321/overview.htm
Imagine, Steve, your level of angst and frustration if the President had decided early on that this was no ordinary pandemic, this was the big one.
Total extinction of mankind on the table. Social lockdown needed to be extreme, including hospitals and other medical facilities.
PPE would be limited to police and guard troops distributing commodity food supplies.
Necessary, if it saves even one life…..
For America, there never was a correct national response to a novel virus, even our accepted response to annual influenza is a series of half measures and compromises.
Trump’s command of the language is poor.
He is unable to emote or feign empathy like a seasoned politician.
Seems to me this last, not policy, is the reason for the personal hatred towards him.
It may also be the reason for his support, for as unscripted and often incomprehensible as he is, he is authentic, even when he exaggerates and yes, lies.
Sigh. Not everything is a binary choice of extremes. All we needed was a normal person in charge. Neither the end of life is here NOR this is nothing to worry about was the right approach. What we needed at the very least was someone who didnt need to make this all about himself and turn this into a battle. No other president would have inserted himself directly into medical care by claiming that a particular drug or therapy worked, especially given the lack of evidence. But this guy reads the conspiracy sites so he just knew what really worked. Those click bait sites that say read this for the seven things doctors dont want you to know? Trump was our elected leader promoting click bait.
Look at masks. This didnt need to become a political litmus test. They are clearly helpful. If there is any issue with them it is whether people will use them correctly and when they should use them. Trump has made fun of masks and has personally made a point of not using them. The main reason they are a controversy is because of him. Imagine if he had just said “look, they help. They might not be the most important thing but they can help. Wear them indoors and when you are around lots of people.” Instead we now have people with COVID who refuse to wear masks because their fearless leader told them they dont work, putting other people at higher risk. But hey, I get to tell my staff if they get Covid they only have a 0.3% chance of dying so who cares. Remember when Republicans used to advocate for personal responsibility?
Look at his “travel ban”. He knew, from the tapes and in his own words, that this was a respiratory illness. So does he limit all travel to and from China like other countries? Nope, just limits Chinese nationals. Makes his fans happy but does almost nothing to limit spread.
I have gone through the list of his failures before and it would take too long to do it again on this issue. To an extent Dave is correct. The real opportunity to make this work better is over. Trump has poisoned the effort irreparably. Still, if we do have a major recurrence the is not the guy we want in charge.
Oh, and we will continue to take care of you fuc*ing idiot conservatives who dont want to wear your masks. If you are hospitalized already you have a much higher than 0.3% chance of dying, plus you face the potential for a long recovery. We will be there for you then also. It is our responsibility, our duty, so we will live up to that.
Steve
Don’t call me names.
I never said I was a conservative.
And BTW, you show up for the money, like everyone else.