I was quite interested in this piece in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “New study makes it clear: Mask wearing can save lots of lives”:
If Americans would stop complaining about face masks and wear them when they leave their homes, they could save well over 100,000 lives — and perhaps more than half a million — through the end of February, according to a study published Friday in Nature Medicine.
The researchers considered five scenarios for how the pandemic could play out with different levels of mask-wearing and rules about staying home and social distancing. All the scenarios assumed that no vaccine was available, nor any medicines capable of curing the disease.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the conclusions of the “study” but I was quite disappointed when I sought out the “study” itself because it doesn’t actually confirm the effectiveness of masks. It isn’t empirical at all. It assumes the effectiveness of masks and uses that to model several different scenarios of mask utilization and what their outcomes might be. It’s a waste of effort. Garbage in, garbage out. Their models have problems of their own. For example, they’re deterministic and I’m suspicious of any deterministic model of human behavior. I think that probabilistic models are much closer to reality but, since deterministic models are so much easier, those are mostly what we get.
I did find another aspect of the MST article thought-provoking, this sentence:
Mask wearing has become deeply politicized, and it may feel unrealistic to expect 95% of Americans to cover their noses and mouths whenever they are in public.
Is it actually true that mask wearing has become deeply politicized? Or is a more accurate statement that what people are saying about mask wearing has become deeply politicized? Walking around Chicago, as reliably a Democratic area as you’re likely to find, I have noticed two things:
- About 30% of people wear masks other than in stores or offices where they’re required.
- I have yet to see a person under the age of 18 wearing a mask unless accompanied by an adult.
If that’s what it’s like in Chicago, what’s it like in Dallas or some other area that’s much more Republican? My guess is that what’s closer to the truth is that 49% of people think the answer that pollsters expect to hear is that they’re wearing masks all of the time, so that’s what they say. I don’t see any other way the reported numbers line up with what I’m seeing.
I’m still waiting for better studies of the effectiveness of wearing facemasks. The results from health care settings suggest to me that they can be highly effective. Studies from other circumstances with fairly intimate contact suggest that they can be marginally effective. I doubt that the masks that you generally see worn in the way they’re generally worn do much of anything for people walking down the street. Whether they’re doing anything for people in stores or offices, I don’t know.
Following link goes to a nice review at Nature on the topic, covering a lot of the well known studies. At this point it is clear that masks work just as it is clear that antibiotics work. However, just like antibiotics down work if you dont take them or dont take them correctly the concern is if people will or can use them correctly. Here, the naysayers like you, focus on the fact that they are not used or not used correctly 100% of the time. A good example of this follows.
” Walking around Chicago, as reliably a Democratic area as you’re likely to find, I have noticed two things:
About 30% of people wear masks other than in stores or offices where they’re required.”
The evidence seems to suggest that it takes more than casual contact for most spread. It takes somewhat prolonged or frequently repeated but close short contacts. Almost always indoors. So if you are out walking and see people outside without masks I dont think that is the high risk period. Inside, like stores and offices, is where the risk lies. If people are wearing masks there then we should expect a positive effect.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02801-8
Steve
We’re both “naysayers”, steve. You have said that wearing facemasks is marginally effective and so have I. Yet in your comment you seem to be making the “force field” argument, as PD has called it. Yes, I think that unless people wear perfectly effective facemasks perfectly 100% of the time, that’s pretty unlikely. What do you think?
I wear a facemask 100% of the time when in a store or other commercial establishment or walking around the office. I don’t wear one sitting alone in my enclosed office (not just a cubicle) because a) I disinfect the surfaces there daily and b) the building has an AirPHX system. I wear one when walking around Evanston, e.g. from my car to the office. I occasionally wear one when walking around my neighborhood. I don’t wear one when walking my dog in the forest preserve.
WRT antibiotics, when I was a kid I regularly received antibiotics when I had a virus. Maybe they prevented opportunistic bacterial infections. I doubt they did much for the viruses. I think it’s more likely that they were being administered because of lack of experience with antibiotics.
I was specifically responding to the article I cited. The claim in the article was that 49% of people say they wear masks “all of the time”. I don’t believe that. Do you?
I will admit to being a naysayer about unenforced mandates. I don’t think they’re effective and I think they undermine the rule of law.
I asked my daughter about this yesterday; she worked at a WalMart from mid-June to mid-October as a shopper. She says that mask-wearing has been pretty consistent; typically in an 8 hour shift she would see a total of 10 people without a mask, and a dozen with their mask pulled down beneath their nose. I was interested because every time infections rates increase the local public health director says people aren’t wearing masks. She disagrees, she thinks there simply more people out. I would assume the typical WalMart shopper is more Republican, the location of this one is on the city’s edge, seeming to want to capture rural/suburban shoppers.
Whether mask mandates “work” is beyond me, but we have one, and it’s posted on the front entry of every business.
Fun to watch how many walk from their car to the door, read the sign, throw their hands in the air and go back to the car for their mask.
Every time that happens I believe that that person has just been given a reminder that a communicable virus is among us.
They may now adjust their behavior accordingly. We’re human, we fall back into social activities we may later regret, if masks are nothing more than a reminder, they’re worth it.
I have no idea whether or not masks are effective. I do wonder if they could be counter productive. Specifically, how hygienic are most peoples’ masks. Are they just carrying one in their car which gets used and reused over days or weeks? Full disclosure, I am guilty of this. Improperly used, it would seem they are a hazard, at least to the user.
Masks can be effective; but it should be put into context.
The plurality (if not the majority) of where people get the virus is at home.
Unless the advice is updated to wear masks at home when you are with family; mask wearing is not occurring where it is most needed now.
I agree with that, CuriousOnlooker. That is what the empirical evidence suggests. I would add that the models should have paid more attention to social distancing than they did.
God bless. No where here or anywhere have I said anything remotely like they work 100% of the time. I said they are effective and have defined that before but guess I need to define that every time. Depending on the mask (I am excluding the higher grade N-95 and N-100 masks) they are anywhere from 30% to 70% effective.
” I don’t believe that. Do you?”
I don’t really believe anyone does, or should, wear them all of the time. Outside walking and no one else near? Whats the point? Alone in your office? Why would you? Are there 50% of people who wear them all of the time when in an indoor setting with other people around? That wouldn’t surprise me.
Steve
No. You, like me, have said that they produce marginal results (a margin of around 25% reduction in cases).
I see an unbelievable result being reported (49% say they wear masks “all the time”) and speculate that they’re lying to sound better than they are; you see an unbelievable result and revise its meaning so that it’s more credible.
You’re rewriting the data that were reported in the article to suit yourself.
Ilive in a world of data. I read studies almost every day. I also pay attention to what I see when I am out, like you do. No, I dont believe 49% wear them all the time. I doubt anyone wears them sleeping at night for example. However, there are nice studies on what people mean by always, never and other words. I suspect that all of the time means they are wearing them when out in public.
Steve