I recommend this piece at the BBC, commenting on the same Global Trends 2040 study I pointed to yesterday. Read the whole thing—it’s not long. But I’ll focus on three scenarios they extract from the study.
“Optimistic” scenario
This involves the US and its allies harnessing technology and economic growth to deal with domestic and international challenges, while China and Russia’s crackdowns (including in Hong Kong) stifle innovation and strengthen the appeal of democracy.
Although it’s a possibility I would not make book on that scenario. I think it exhibits the confidence in technology I have only seen from people who barely passed high school trig.
“Adrift” scenario
“The world adrift scenario” imagines market economies never recovering from the Covid pandemic, becoming domestically deeply divided and living in an international system that is “directionless, chaotic and volatile” as international rules and institutions are ignored by countries, corporations and other groups.
That sounds a lot more like the world we’re living in. Think of it as an “if this goes on…” scenario.
Fantasy scenario
“Tragedy and Mobilisation” imagines a world in the midst of a global catastrophe in the early 2030s thanks to climate change, famine and unrest – but this in turn leads to a new global coalition, driven in part by social movements, to address the problems.
That’s what is known in the trade as “time inconsistency”. For some reason people respond in very different ways from the way they responded to the last time we faced major economic downturn, war, and environmental pressures all at the same time.
My reaction to all of these scenarios was how America-centric do you need to be not to consider a scenario in which China continues its rise? Or one in which a major war breaks out in East Asia which finds the West too self-absorbed to muster any will to do anything about?
Keep in mind that the report was produced by intelligence professionals. You can find that heartening or terrifying, depending.
Terrifying, but unsurprised.
Most likely scenario: Russia/China achieve hegemony; American Empire collapses.