Making Predictions Is Mean

The quote is variously attributed but making predictions about the future is not just hard, sometimes it’s downright mean. That’s certainly the case with the Global Trends 2040 report remarked on by Warren P. Strobel and Dustin Volz in an article in the Wall Street Journal. Here’s a sample:

The report, Global Trends 2040, envisions a rough ride ahead for the planet, with accelerating contests over resources, governments struggling to meet citizens’ aspirations, and increased fragmentation of communities where “people are likely to gravitate to information silos of people who share similar views, reinforcing beliefs and understanding of the truth.”

There’s also some, presumably unintentional, humor:

It sees some bright spots. Population growth in Latin American and South Asia could spur economic expansion, the report says, even as China, Japan and South Korea deal with aging populations. The advent of artificial intelligence, by boosting productivity, could help governments deliver more services and tackle rising national debts, it says.

Population growth is inversely correlated with economic growth in low income countries. China, Japan, and South Korea are some of the most racially and ethnically homogeneous countries on the planet. Are they suggesting that the expanding populations of Latin America will prove to be good markets for China, Japan, or South Korea? Or that China, Japan, and South Korea will gladly accept workers from Latin American countries?

“Artificial intelligence” is a more complicated subject. If they mean automation, automating tasks that would otherwise be performed by unskilled or semi-skilled human workers will mean less work for those workers not more. If they mean true artificial intelligence it’s hard to say but progress in true artificial intelligence has been glacially slow. Most of what you see today is just applying cheaper, faster hardware in ways that were well understood 50 years ago but too expensive to be practical.