The SCOTUS decision in Louisiana v. Callais continues to trouble me and to explain why we need to dig into the history a bit. When the Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965, Louisiana’s population was, as it is now, roughly one-third black. The state had eight Congressional districts. All were held by Democrats—remember, that was the era of the “Solid South”. None of Louisiana’s Congressional representatives was black.
Today the situation is quite different. Louisiana has six Congressional districts. Four of those districts are held by Republicans, two by Democrats. All of the Republican Congressmen are white while both Democrats are black. Today’s two black Democratic seats are primarily made possible by the wild racial gerrymandering, a picture of which I’ve already shown.
In 1965 the absence of black representatives was the result of racial exclusion; today, the alignment of race and party means that representation is largely a byproduct of partisan geography.
The following table illustrates the challenge:
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| Parish | Black % | Total Pop (approx) |
|---|---|---|
| East Carroll | 69% | 7,459 |
| Madison | 63% | 10,017 |
| Claiborne | 52% | 14,170 |
| Caddo | ~50% | ~247,000 |
| East Baton Rouge | 47% | ~452,000 |
| Iberville | 49% | ~33,000 |
| Orleans | ~55% | ~384,000 |
| Morehouse | 48% | ~25,000 |
If a non-gerrymandered map were drawn that did not cross parish boundaries, the greatest likelihood would be that Louisiana would be left with no Democratic seats. If Caddo parish in the north were bundled with other adjacent parishes with a large percentage of black voters, it’s possible that one seat with a black majority could be eked out.
The questions this raises are at the heart of the controversy over redistricting in Louisiana.
- Does not being able to elect a candidate of your choice impair your right to vote?
- Does not being able to elect a candidate of the race of your choice impair your right to vote?
- Does not being able to elect a candidate of the political party of your choice impair your right to vote?
- Does not being able to elect a candidate of the political party and race of your choice impair your right to vote?
- If you answered “Yes” to any of the above, why is that different in Louisiana than it is, say, in Illinois?
Personally, my preference would be for all Congressional districts throughout the United States to be determined algorithmically to be compact and not cross jurisdiction boundaries to the greatest degree possible AND for there to be at least three times and possibly four times as many Congressional districts as there are at present. Either of those would require an act of Congress (which I think is unlikely) or a Constitutional amendment (which is even less likely).
However, I do think we need to recognize just how different things are than they were 60 years ago. Not only are black voters not suppressed as they were then but the makeup and nature of the political parties are drastically different. But that’s a topic for a different post.
I think the New Orleans Congressional district is reasonably compact and contiguous. Orleans Parish is the only parish with a significant population which is more than 50% black and the neighboring Jefferson Parish has about as many blacks as Cado Parish (though we appear to be looking at slightly different stats). Orleans is never going to be its own district, it will be a part of Jefferson and/or some other parishes in the metro area.
The rest of the state doesn’t have anything comparable, in part because blacks are spread throughout the state. Only five parishes out of sixty-four are less than 12.4% black (the U.S. average), the median parish is about 29% black. Rural blacks are significant, and it mostly looks like a lot of the descendants of slaves live in the same area as their ancestors. Some move to larger cities to work, but not enough to change rural demographics.
The previous map ruled unconstitutional combined Orleans and East Baton Rouge to create a single (and only) black district. The complaint was that these are two historically and culturally distinct black communities that deserve separate representation. The new map did this by joining Baton Rouge to black populations across the state, in particular from Lafayette in Cajun Country, Alexandria in Central Louisiana, and the big prize of Shreveport in the Ark-La-Tex region, almost in another state.
I think a majority minority district in Orleans is probably required even under the recent SCOTUS decision, but even if it weren’t it is hard to imagine a minority district in the metro being protected to help Republican majorities in the remaining five districts.