Doomberg points out the incipient problems with a number of key inputs (fertilizer, herbicides, diesel fuel, semiconductor chips, propane, etc.) used by farmers and concludes:
We believe we are at the onset of a global famine of historic proportions. In a staggering defiance of logic, many US politicians are still attacking the lifeblood of our own energy production infrastructure, looking to score political points against “the other team,†blaming price-taking producers of global commodities for gouging, threatening producers of energy with windfall profits taxes, resisting calls to remove bureaucratic hurdles to new production, and refusing to open an introductory physics textbook to help guide them through the suite of policy choices that require true leadership to get right. They remain stuck in an endless loop of platitudes, blamestorming, corruption, and ignorance.
I wish I didn’t have to repeat this but I continue to think that the risks of globalization have been drastically underestimated.
Its bigger than that. Its the nexus of textbook economic globalization, environmentalism at the expense of strategic interests and a dishonest alliance between politicians and large corporate interests.
I think this is a good illustration of the risk of dependencies. Most people, in the US and first-world countries at least, are accustomed to stuff just working without any idea of the complexity behind the scenes. And while that complexity can have advantages, it also comes with risks, because toppling a few dominos in key places could cause of cascade of effects.
And I think that’s a big part of the underlying story with inflation. If you haven’t yet, I’d highly recommend Ezra Klein’s recent podcast with Larry Summers, who has been right in his predictions:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i-keep-hoping-larry-summers-is-wrong-what-if-hes-not/id1548604447?i=1000555567714
I avoid podcasts because I just don’t have the time or energy. I can read an 800 word op-ed in a minute or so and a 10,000 word longform article in less than twenty minutes. Listening for 20 minutes or 40 minutes or an hour takes more commitment than I’m willing to give. I’d probably go to sleep.
“I’d probably go to sleep.”
LOL Kinda my MO.