I strongly recommend you read this post from the Multipolarity Substack. Here’s a concluding snippet:
Dr Powell’s model suggests that the war is rapidly nearing a tipping point. Ukraine is approaching the fulcrum beyond which the weight of the war tips its forces into rapid depletion, allowing the Russian military to start achieving much more significant territorial gains. In turn, this would lead to accelerated Ukrainian losses through the ruthless reality of the square law. This road heads toward an eventual Ukrainian collapse.
Ukraine’s effective combat power (a composite of manpower, machinery and munitions) is depleting, the model shows, at a net rate that outpaces its replenishment, while Russia’s holds steady or grows marginally. This imbalance, compounded by recent reductions in Western support, suggests a tipping point where Ukrainian force density thins below viability, triggering rapid territorial losses and operational collapse.
That could be foreclosed by, for example, Western troops from any of the various NATO countries but that in turn risks widening the war into global thermonuclear war.
Ukrainian esprit de corps makes little difference. Innovations in warfare make little difference. What matters is how many troops can be fielded by each side.
The TL;DR version: come up with a minimally livable solution quickly.
I recall you wrote a post a number of years ago and asked who will win in the long run. Although it has taken longer than I ever imagined, I recall thinking that it didn’t take a military genius to understand that as long as each side took a meat grinder approach it was inevitable the Russians would eventually prevail
Yes, note to Ukraine. Sue for peace
They dont have enough prior wars to claim it’s an iron law. At the beginning of the war the very large majority of people thought Russia would win, and quickly, due to its larger population and more resources and what was perceived as a superior military. The odds still favor them but per Chat-GPT since WW2 in conflicts between superpowers and smaller countries, the smaller has won about 30% of the time. Through history the largest better resourced country has not always won. Ability and motivation count for a lot. In that regard, the last time Russia ruled Ukraine they murdered millions and stole thousands of their kids. Russia still probably wins but I wouldnt call it certain.
Steve
Steve
Ukrainian morale has collapsed. The Kiev regime is now kidnapping women off the streets to fill its frontline “manpower” needs. And the senseless murder of over a dozen school girls and some boys and sevral dozen injured at night, in their beds, shows just how desperate and depraved the Kiev regime and NATO/US are.
The great mystery is, Why has this war dragged out so long? Historians will write many books on this war. And the closely related, equally senseless war with Iran. Taiwan would make a nice triplet, three being one of the magic numbers It would also make for a satisfying completeness: simultaneous shooting wars with all our enemies.
steve: The odds still favor them but per Chat-GPT since WW2 in conflicts between superpowers and smaller countries, the smaller has won about 30% of the time.
Notably, Afghanistan prevailed over the Soviet Union. The disparity in population, industrial production, and military infrastructure was even greater than the current conflict in Ukraine.