Reminders

I wanted to remind readers of several things:

1. I support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. I think Russia was wrong to invade Ukraine. Whatever legitimate grievances Russia had, they did not justify invading Ukraine.
2. From the very first day I opposed going to war with Iran. A casus belli does not impel one to go to war, especially without a coherent plan for achieving one’s objectives at a cost one is willing and able to bear.
3. I have opposed our assisting Saudi Arabia in its war against the Houthi. Simply stated, the Saudis are not our friends. What American interest justifies helping them prosecute this war? What are we supposed to accomplish, and why should we expect our assistance to accomplish it?

I do have some things to add to those. Despite believing we should continue to support Ukraine, I don’t think we should have any illusions about Ukraine. The Russo-Ukrainian War is not the good guys fighting the bad guys. We shouldn’t idealize Ukraine.

I am constantly surprised at how poorly President Trump understands the oil market. Self-sufficient or not, there is a global market for oil and that continues to affect us because we’re part of that global market. Does he genuinely believe that buying diesel from Russia will materially ease the price increases in the United States?

One thing I don’t believe I’ve mentioned before: the jinn is out of the bottle. The Iranians have demonstrated in practice that they can impede traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Even if the war ended tomorrow, Iran will continue to be aware that they can create havoc in world oil markets by their ability to impede traffic in the Straits. That won’t go away.