In his Washington Post column Marc Thiessen introduced something I found thought-provoking:
The blockade allows the president to twist Iran’s arm to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, because he is now blocking Iran’s energy exports to China, which gets 45 to 50 percent of its crude oil and 30 percent of its liquefied natural gas imports through the strait, Trump can give Beijing incentive to join him in that pressure campaign.
That evoked a two-part question.
First, should China offer to help the U. S. keep the Straits of Hormuz open? I think it would be in China’s interest to do so. Do the Chinese? There are risks as well as benefits in the move. It could preserve China’s access to Middle Eastern oil and confirm China’s position as a world power. But it would also be seen as abandoning Iran and there is always the risk of losing a ship which would be embarrassing to say the least. It would also implicitly accept blockade as a tool of statecraft. That would have implications for Taiwan. Perhaps China could secure the rewards without bearing the risks.
It also assumes Beijing would see the pressure as directed at Iran rather than itself.
The second is should the U. S. accept China’s help? I think it should but, as I have said before, I have difficulty in figuring out what President Trump will do. Whether the U.S. would accept such help depends on whether it prioritizes immediate leverage over long-term strategic position. There are risks and rewards here, too. It would drive a wedge between China and Iran but it would, as noted, confirm China’s position as a world power. It also would establish a precedent for shared spheres of influence.
China is on a roll.
Its client state Venezuela is no longer a client state.
Panama Canal. China gone.
Gulf States, Indonesia and Singapore are smiling at us, not China. And its not because of our rosy disposition. Lost in all of the hoo-ha has been The Straight of Malacca; that’s where to focus next. Not Taiwan.
China is a world power. But they aren’t at our level right now, and countries know it. As I’ve noted, its in their naked self interest to get the crazies in Iran starved out. They need more than just Russia’s oil.
Is it possible to deduce the goal of the CCP?
Taken at their own word it is to spread communism throughout the entire world and destroy the capitalists. But of course, they have short term goals as well.
Just as the Islamists will smile and cooperate with the West if it serves their long term goal of world domination, the Chinese regime will probably try to arm twist the IRGC without sending any ships.
I see reports of the Chinese being accused of dumping cyanide into the sea near the Phillipines to destroy fishing grounds, this adds to their reputation of being willing to use chemical and biological weapons and we’d better be prepared for that scenario.
Other than maintaining power it isn’t possible for me at least.
I would go a bit farther. I don’t think the CCP is bound by anything that is outside China and its history or culture.
Maintaining power and the safety and perks of power, IMO explains the Iranian regime as well.
Religion is the opiate of the masses.
Preach Islam and jihadism for others but impose tolls and taxes that flow into the rulers coffers.
Hit them harder. Don’t be afraid.
We’re finding out many of the ruler’s families are living in our country, off of the money beaten out of Iranians.
I don’t give them credit for any “religious”
stance, it’s all about power and money.