In his most recent Wall Street Journal column Walter Russell Mead declaims that President Donald Trump seeks a “calm Middle East”:

Even before senior national security figures discussed secret war plans over a Signal chat that inadvertently included a magazine editor, it was clear that March Madness has broken out in the Middle East.

Military conflicts and political unrest are simultaneously on the boil across the region. The Trump administration is sending a second carrier strike group to the region as the U.S. confrontation with the Houthis intensifies.

Iran, staggered by its catastrophic and humiliating losses to Israel, hesitates between the alternatives of nuclear breakout and negotiated settlement with its foes.

As Turkish financial markets melted down and demonstrators across the country called for democracy, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jailed his most formidable rival on corruption charges. Israeli troops returned to Gaza even as the Israel Defense Forces stepped up the pressure in Syria and Lebanon.

Back home, Israeli streets filled again with protesters denouncing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government even as the cabinet fired the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency and initiated proceedings to oust the attorney general—and Houthi missiles sent millions of Israelis into bomb shelters.

concluding:

Mr. Trump’s agenda in the Middle East is a simple one. He wants what every American president has wanted since World War II: a quiet Middle East that pumps oil and gas and buys American goods (including arms) without entangling the U.S. in more wars. While the Trump administration is pursuing a policy toward the trans-Atlantic alliance that produces upheaval and is challenging China on trade, it wants the Middle East to settle down.

Middle East powers seeking Mr. Trump’s friendship should bear this in mind. The countries who offer him the most stability at the lowest cost are the ones most likely to enjoy his support.

I do not know what President Trump’s agenda in the Middle East is. I don’t do mind-reading.

However, anyone—president or otherwise—who wants a calm Middle East will be doomed to disappointment. It has never been calm. There have been some very brief periods that presented the illusion of calm but never really calm.

Consider the alternatives. If the Israelis killed all of the Arabs on the West Bank and in Gaza, it would not provide a lasting peace. The Israelis would continue to be attacked by Arab groups supported by the Iranians, the Turks, or the Gulf Arabs. If the Palestinians killed all of the Israelis, that would not provide a lasting peace, either. Groups supported by Iranians would fight groups supported by the Turks and those supported by the Gulf Arabs. If some miracle unified the Arabs, they would still be fighting the Iranians to be the dominant voice in Islam. There is no prospect for calm in the Middle East.

I want to recommend a post by Noah Smith, “Blue states don’t build. Red states do.” Here’s a sample:

Many things frustrate me about this debate. One is that most of the progressive critics of the abundance idea appear not to have actually read Klein and Thompson’s book; they lazily assume it’s all about deregulation, when in fact Klein and Thompson spend more time calling for building up state capacity and the power of the bureaucracy. Another frustrating thing is that the progressive critics seem to assume that their preferred ideas — such as antitrust — are alternatives to abundance, when in fact they usually don’t conflict, and sometimes complement each other.

But what frustrates me most is that by insisting on degrowth over abundance, progressives are hurting themselves much more than they’re hurting any billionaires, oligarchs, or conservatives. Most development policy is set at the city and state level, not at the federal level. Which means by embracing degrowth, progressives are only stifling development in blue states and progressive cities — places like California and Massachusetts. Meanwhile, red states like Texas just keep growing, because progressives can’t tell them what to do.

The question I’d like to ask is why don’t “blue states” build? The answer to which Mr. Smith points is excessive regulation but IMO that’s a symptom rather than the disease.

Another possibility is NIMBYism but, again, I think that’s a symptom rather than the disease. Even more aggravating is BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything).

I think that a great deal of the problem is that the process is the objective rather than the product.

Why has California been trying to build high speed rail for the last 40 years? The first version began in 1982; the reboot in 2008. Of the 171 miles in the “Initial Operating Segment” (IOS) none has been completed but 22 miles have been declared ready for track-laying. That’s since 2014. For perspective the Golden Gate Bridge was constructed in four years, Hoover Dam in five years, and the transcontinental railroad in six years.

The City of Ithaca’s ambitious plan to go entirely renewable has met with similar obstacles. Electrifying 6,000 buildings over five years was planned; to date 10 have been electrified and the project has more or less been abandoned.

My speculation is that establishing committees, doing planning, and spending money are the actual objectives while actually producing highspeed rail going green takes a backseat. The meetings and planning upset no one and produce little backlash; actually building anything will be controversial and produce political backlash.

Consider the state with which I’m most familiar. Here in Illinois the state’s objectives are rather obviously employing and paying wages to public employees, later paying their pensions. Teaching kids, enforcing the law, having safe neighborhoods, and maintaining the roads are far less important.

I get the distinct impression that we’ve had some slow news days lately. To my eye the big stories are:

1. The district judge’s decisions on the Trump Administration’s removal of illegal immigrants.
2. The incipient ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the area around the Black Sea.
3. The Signal discussion “heard ’round the world”.
4. The demonstrations in Turkey

On the first story, a district judge only has the last say if the appellate court and/or the Supreme Court say he does. We won’t know the status of that for a while.

IMO commenting on the ceasefire is premature.

I’ve been saying for some time that federal government agencies are manifestly incapable of maintaining proper digital security. That’s not new. It has obviously been the case for years. It has been tolerated under Democratic administrations and Republican administrations. What’s the solution for that?

The demonstrations against Erdogan and his government in Turkey have been going on for six days now. I have read coverage of those demonstrations from U. S. news sources, British news sources, French news sources, and German news sources. None of them have much to say that I couldn’t write right here without looking at those news sources. That suggests to me that either 1) they don’t know any more than I do; or 2) they’re not really that interested in them or maybe both. If the Erdogan government falls it could be a very big deal, indeed.

In listening to the interview of Sen. Bernie Sanders on the talking heads programs yesterday I noticed something confusing. He continually talks about the “1%” and then conflates that with “billionaires”.

There are fewer than 1,000 billionaires in the United States. Their total combined wealth is around $6 trillion. Their combined annual income is unclear.

There are about 1.5 million individuals in the top 1% of income earners. Their combined annual income is around $120 billion. Their combined wealth is around $49 trillion.

Which is Sen. Sanders concerned about? I’m concerned about the heavy concentration of wealth in so few hands in the United States but I’m even more concerned about the wealth and income of the top 1% than I am of the .001%.

My uninformed take on the .001% is that they are shrewd exploiters of “the system” and will prosper regardless of what that system is. Perhaps they are using the influence their enormous wealth brings but it’s a lot less obvious than the lobbying and manipulation of the top 1% of income earners.

Take Elon Musk as an example of the “billionaire class”. An extremely short summary of where he obtained his wealth might be

Zip2 => X.com (online bank) => PayPal => SpaceX => Starlink => Tesla

Most of his wealth is Tesla stock. I don’t see a great deal of rent-seeking on his part until SpaceX but ever since he founded SpaceX he’s been very skillful at it. Would Tesla actually be where it is today without the federal subsidies for electric vehicles? I doubt it. But here’s the key point: Mr. Musk did not lobby to get those put in place. He’s said that he opposes such subsidies. His benefiting from them as much as he does is an example of my point: he’s riding the waves not creating them.

The situation with the top 1% is somewhat different. In many cases their high incomes depend on lobbying organizations that try to get the Congress to craft the laws in ways that benefit them.

Consider the graph at the top of this post. The incomes of “the billionaires” has gone up twice as face as that of the top 1% but the income of the top 1% have gone up three times as fast as those of the top 25% of income earners.

That’s why I’m as worried about oligarchy as Sen. Sanders is but I’m worried about rule by the 1% at last as much as rule by billionaires. And that 1% includes Sen. Sanders.

Paul Vallas, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s erstwhile opponent for the job of mayor, has a piece at Illinois Policy decrying Mayor Johnson’s handling of negotiations with the Chicago Teachers Union:

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson will do whatever it takes to get his cohorts at the Chicago Teachers Union the unaffordable and egregious contract it wants, and it will be just the beginning of ruining city finances.

The mayor’s failed efforts to allow his office to make loans and grants to the school district through his infrastructure proposal, much like his renewed pressure on the district to borrow $242 million for pensions, is but a prelude to the efforts he will undertake to pay for a new teachers contract that is unaffordable. It will raise property taxes and force the city to cut services.

The last record-setting contract made CTU members the highest-paid workers among large school districts and added over 9,000 new staff, all while adding $1.5 billion in new spending. That lucrative contract did not stop the CTU from engaging in two illegal work stoppages, effectively forcing the district to keep schools closed during COVID with devastating consequences.

The increased spending didn’t improve student outcomes in Chicago Public Schools: five years after the 2019 contract negotiations, 41% of students are chronically absent and fewer than 1 in 3 students are proficient in reading and even fewer are proficient in math.

The CTU’s original demands for its next contract exceeded $10 billion. However you cut it, the new contract will force Chicagoans to pay substantially more for bad outcomes.

The City of Chicago’s present S&P credit rating is BBB—the lowest investment grade bond rating. The next step would be what is called a “speculative grade”, i.e. not investment grade. The recent downgrade is a vote of “no confidence” from S&P and will mean that Chicago will pay more to finance its debt going forward.

I voted for Vallas in the last mayoral election. I have no idea how anyone expected Brandon Johnson to do anything other than what he has done.

Chicago’s population has declined by nearly a million people since its peak in 1950. I see little prospect for Chicago being able to fix its financial situation with any measure short of bankruptcy. Those who want a solid financial basis are leaving Chicago and, indeed, the state leaving Chicagoans who think they are benefiting from the city’s profligacy behind.

Before writing more generally about the budget, I thought I’d express my thoughts on Social Security.

First, I think that there is no way other than a system like Social Security to ensure that Americans are not destitute in their old age. Any other plan bears some risk of loss which negates that. Furthermore, any plan that invests its trust fund in private investments will eventually come to own a substantial percentage of all assets, something I don’t believe those who propose such things want to happen.

Second, Social Security has become something quite different from what was imagined in 1935. In 1940 when the Social Security system began paying monthly benefits most could not expect to live to 65 and those who did could only expect to live into their mid-70s. There was no expectation that most Americans would retire in their 60s and collect benefits for the next 20-40 years. That’s a completely different system than was originally envisioned.

So here are the reforms I think should be made.

1. All wage income should be subject to Social Security taxes. That will not realize as much income as some seem to think since the highest income earners can arrange things to minimize their wage income and take their income in other forms.
2. The minimum Social Security Retirement Age should be gradually increased to 70 with the “full Social Security Retirement Age” gradually increased to 80.
3. These ages should be indexed to life expectancy.

I also think we should stop importing workers with low lifetime earnings expectations but that’s another subject.

If Congress wishes to create a separate compulsory retirement savings system in which funds can be invested in private investments, I would not oppose it but I honestly can’t imagine such a system. The present 401K system is lousy.

The situation with Medicare is even worse. Not only does it have the same age issues that Social Security does, Congress has shown no willingness to economize on Medicare costs. Some hold the mystical belief that can be corrected if everyone is covered within the same plan. I do not believe that will be effective as long as Congress is not willing to economize.

Something really does need to be done and that’s not a “right-wing MAGA” fantasy. Many economists and financiers including Lawrence Summers, Jared Bernstein, Jerome Powell, and Jamie Dimon (hardly a catalog of “right-wing MAGA” fanatics) have said that what we are doing is not sustainable. Even Paul Krugman has implied as much if not saying so outright. His terse response to questions about his thoughts on Modern Monetary Theory was “things don’t work that way” which in turn implies that what we’re doing is not sustainable.

The opinion pages are full of reactions to the Trump Administration’s ignoring of court orders staying the deportation of alleged Tren de Aragua members. A sample are:

Michael A. Fragoso at City Journal
Ray Brescia at MSNBC
Philip Bump at the Washington Post

just to name a few. Some of these refer to the situation as a “constitutional crisis”. Is there an actual constitutional crisis? I think there is but it’s not limited to the issues that are being called a “constitutional crisis”.

As I see it the crisis extends to the presidency, the Congress, and the judiciary. Nobody wants to do their own jobs. Maybe more precisely everybody is treating their jobs as a sort of cafeteria, picking and choosing the components they want to do.

Rather than focusing on the deportation issue, let’s consider the recent decision by district court judge Theodore D. Chuang with respect to USAID. It falsely asserts that USAID was created by Congress. USAID was created by President John F. Kennedy by executive order. Its reorganization by the Congress did not define its role, leaving that to the executive.

Those are egregious errors of fact in Judge Chuang’s opinion. As of this writing the Supreme Court has not reversed the decision but Chief Justice Roberts has expressed disapproval of President Trump’s calling for Congress to impeach Judge Chuang. What’s wrong with calling for the impeachment of judges who commit egregious errors of fact in their decisions?

The Congress, too, has been remiss. The budget is its responsibility and the continuing resolution is not a budget. Its kicking the can down the road instead of enacting a budget. More on the budget later.

The list of derelictions is practically endless.

You might want to read Alan J. Kuperman’s piece at The Hill. Here’s its opening:

I rarely agree with President Trump, but his latest controversial statements about Ukraine are mostly true. They only seem preposterous because western audiences have been fed a steady diet of disinformation about Ukraine for more than a decade. It is time to set the record straight on three key points that illuminate why Ukrainians and former President Joe Biden — not merely Russian President Vladimir Putin — bear significant responsibility for the outbreak and perpetuation of war in Ukraine.

The piece is copiously annotated. The three points are:

1. The violence that provoked Russia’s initial incursion into Ukraine was initiated by ultra-nationalist Ukrainians.
2. President Zelensky violated multiple peace deals with Russia, seeking NATO membership and support instead.
3. President Biden basically gave Zelensky a blank check, “escalating and perpetuating” the fighting.

Dr. Kuperman concludes:

The basic outlines of a deal to end the fighting are obvious even if details remain to be negotiated, as Trump and Putin started doing today in a phone call. Russia will continue to occupy Crimea and other portions of the southeast, while the rest of Ukraine will not join NATO but will get security guarantees from some western countries. The sad thing is that such a plan could have been achieved at least two years ago if only President Biden had made military aid conditional on Zelensky negotiating a ceasefire.

Even more tragic, whatever peace deal emerges after the war will be worse for Ukraine than the Minsk accords that Zelensky foolishly abandoned due to his political ambitions and naïve expectation of bottomless U.S. support.

I presume that Dr. Kuperman’s piece will be dismissed as Russian propaganda. Unfortunately, whatever the truth might be it has become irrelevant. We can choose from Ukrainian propaganda or Russian propaganda.

I’m not particularly interested in watching them dye the Chicago River green. I’ve been down to see the South Side St. Patrick’s Day Parade. It was okay. Public drunkenness isn’t my idea of a good time. Or, at least, it’s more fun to be a participant than a spectator.

Consequently, our St. Patrick’s Day was pretty quiet. Corned beef and cabbage is Irish-American rather than Irish. I made a sauté of Irish bangers, onions, leeks, carrots, potatoes, and cabbage. Sort of a combination of bangers and colcannon. My wife wants to have it again tonight.

Then we watched The Quiet Man on TV. Director John Ford created as close to a love note to Ireland as you can get in that movie. It’s probably John Ford’s most beautiful movie. When you consider how many movies he shot in Monument Valley that’s saying something.

For my money the unsung heroes of the picture are all of the members of the Abbey Theatre (National Theatre of Ireland). That includes Maureen O’Hara, her brother Charles FitzSimons, Barry Fitzgerald and his brother Arthur Shields. They provide most of the humor and local color in the movie.