Today’s Fantasy: a “Calm Middle East”

In his most recent Wall Street Journal column Walter Russell Mead declaims that President Donald Trump seeks a “calm Middle East”:

Even before senior national security figures discussed secret war plans over a Signal chat that inadvertently included a magazine editor, it was clear that March Madness has broken out in the Middle East.

Military conflicts and political unrest are simultaneously on the boil across the region. The Trump administration is sending a second carrier strike group to the region as the U.S. confrontation with the Houthis intensifies.

Iran, staggered by its catastrophic and humiliating losses to Israel, hesitates between the alternatives of nuclear breakout and negotiated settlement with its foes.

As Turkish financial markets melted down and demonstrators across the country called for democracy, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jailed his most formidable rival on corruption charges. Israeli troops returned to Gaza even as the Israel Defense Forces stepped up the pressure in Syria and Lebanon.

Back home, Israeli streets filled again with protesters denouncing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government even as the cabinet fired the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency and initiated proceedings to oust the attorney general—and Houthi missiles sent millions of Israelis into bomb shelters.

concluding:

Mr. Trump’s agenda in the Middle East is a simple one. He wants what every American president has wanted since World War II: a quiet Middle East that pumps oil and gas and buys American goods (including arms) without entangling the U.S. in more wars. While the Trump administration is pursuing a policy toward the trans-Atlantic alliance that produces upheaval and is challenging China on trade, it wants the Middle East to settle down.

Middle East powers seeking Mr. Trump’s friendship should bear this in mind. The countries who offer him the most stability at the lowest cost are the ones most likely to enjoy his support.

I do not know what President Trump’s agenda in the Middle East is. I don’t do mind-reading.

However, anyone—president or otherwise—who wants a calm Middle East will be doomed to disappointment. It has never been calm. There have been some very brief periods that presented the illusion of calm but never really calm.

Consider the alternatives. If the Israelis killed all of the Arabs on the West Bank and in Gaza, it would not provide a lasting peace. The Israelis would continue to be attacked by Arab groups supported by the Iranians, the Turks, or the Gulf Arabs. If the Palestinians killed all of the Israelis, that would not provide a lasting peace, either. Groups supported by Iranians would fight groups supported by the Turks and those supported by the Gulf Arabs. If some miracle unified the Arabs, they would still be fighting the Iranians to be the dominant voice in Islam. There is no prospect for calm in the Middle East.