In my description of our Christmas yesterday I neglected to mention the stocking cap with a light on it, handy for picking up after the dogs at night, and the two children’s books I received chronicling the adventures of Mori, pictured above. As it turns out the real Mori is a relative of Jack’s whom he resembles in character as well as conformation.

For our Christmas dinner, frustrated by the high price of roasts, I made braised short ribs with mashed potatoes and green beans sauteed with garlic and chery tomatoes.

In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu explains Israel’s objectives in its war in Gaza:

First, Hamas, a key Iranian proxy, must be destroyed. The U.S., U.K., France, Germany and many other countries support Israel’s intention to demolish the terror group. To achieve that goal, its military capabilities must be dismantled and its political rule over Gaza must end. Hamas’s leaders have vowed to repeat the Oct. 7 massacre “again and again.” That is why their destruction is the only proportional response to prevent the repeat of such horrific atrocities. Anything less guarantees more war and more bloodshed.

[…]

Second, Gaza must be demilitarized. Israel must ensure that the territory is never again used as a base to attack it. Among other things, this will require establishing a temporary security zone on the perimeter of Gaza and an inspection mechanism on the border between Gaza and Egypt that meets Israel’s security needs and prevents smuggling of weapons into the territory.

The expectation that the Palestinian Authority will demilitarize Gaza is a pipe dream. It currently funds and glorifies terrorism in Judea and Samaria and educates Palestinian children to seek the destruction of Israel. Not surprisingly it has shown neither the capability nor the will to demilitarize Gaza. It failed to do so before Hamas booted it out of the territory in 2007, and it has failed to do so in the territories under its control today. For the foreseeable future Israel will have to retain overriding security responsibility over Gaza.

Third, Gaza will have to be deradicalized. Schools must teach children to cherish life rather than death, and imams must cease to preach for the murder of Jews. Palestinian civil society needs to be transformed so that its people support fighting terrorism rather than funding it.

That will likely require courageous and moral leadership. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas can’t even bring himself to condemn the Oct. 7 atrocities. Several of his ministers deny that the murders and rapes happened or accuse Israel of perpetrating these horrific crimes against its own people. Another threatened that a similar attack would be carried out in Judea and Samaria.

Successful deradicalization took place in Germany and Japan after the Allied victory in World War II. Today, both nations are great allies of the U.S. and promote peace, stability and prosperity in Europe and Asia.

My question is whether Israel can accomplish any one of those goals let alone all three without eradicating the Arab population of Gaza? That is not advocacy on my part, merely an observation. I also wonder if the Israelis understand how extreme those three measures are, extending not just to security but into Gazan schools and mosques. That is bound to provoke pushback not just on the West Bank and in Gaza but throughout the Arab world and in the Arab diaspora including in the United States.

Update

The Egyptians have produced their own peace plan report Summer Said and Carrie Keller-Lynn at the Wall Street Journal:

The Egyptian proposal’s first phase calls for Israel and Hamas to agree to a roughly 10-day pause in fighting, during which all civilian hostages being held in Gaza would be released in exchange for Israel releasing around 140 Palestinian prisoners.

That phase also calls on Israel to withdraw its forces from residential communities in Gaza and allow the free movement of Palestinians across the strip. Israel would also pause drone surveillance and allow a significant increase in aid going into Gaza, especially to the northern part of the enclave, access to which has been restricted.

In the second and third phases, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the release of female Israeli soldiers, followed by male Israeli soldiers, in return for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners.

Those hostage-prisoner exchanges, along with the formation of the transitional, technocratic government, pose a thicket of negotiating challenges for both sides.

The transitional government plans would require rivals Hamas and Fatah to reconcile and work together. Once the transitional government took over, elections would be held in which Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is 88, would be succeeded by a younger leader accepted by a majority of Palestinians.

The Egyptian plan is being described as “victory for Hamas” by Israelis. It’s hard for me to see a lot of room for agreement in those two plans.

If you haven’t seen the video above, I wanted to share it with you. It’s from quite a long time ago. Does anyone know if the skit is original to them? I suspect it was a lot more fun to make up than it was to perform.

Christmas has been lovely here. My wife gave me a number of packets of seeds for next year’s vegetable garden, a kitchen hod, and a garden hod. Consistent with her family’s practice, if my wife could’ve wrapped each see individually, she would have. I’m not that skilled.

I’m in the middle of preparing Christmas dinner. We’re having braised and glazed short ribs of beef (nearly but not quite boneless), mashed potatoes, and green beans.

Merry Christmas to all!

At The Hill Myra Adams lists eleven major risks in 2024. I’ll repeat the risk she lists. For her analysis, read her post.

1. What if a barrage of AI-generated content and social media from domestic and foreign players blur presidential campaign messaging, so that voters don’t know what is real or fake?
2. What if House Republicans vote to impeach President Biden?
3. What if Biden drops out?
4. What if the Supreme Court rules that Trump has presidential immunity and can not stand trial on Jan. 6-related charges?
5. What if Trump is convicted of a felony before November’s election, and polls show he still defeats Biden?
6. What if the economy keeps improving and growing with a strong stock market while inflation, interest rates and unemployment all trend lower?
7. What if Trump’s campaign rhetoric continues to sound authoritarian as he leads Biden in the polls?
8. What if the U.S. is drawn into a Middle East war against Iran-backed groups that continue to provoke U.S. naval ships and disrupt international commercial shipping?
9. What if, without U.S. aid, Ukraine falls to Russia?
10. What if war explodes on three fronts?
11. What if there is a terrorist attack in the U.S., and the perpetrators(s) enter over the southern border?

It’s too late to do anything about #1. The best solution would be an aware, educated, rational electorate. #6 is a positive risk; I hope all of those things happen. #10 and #11 concern me most.

Speaking of corruption, I want to cite just one passage from Jonathan Turley’s post at The Hill, “The grifter defense”:

The question is whether Joe Biden knew about the influence peddling of his brothers and his son. If so, he actively assisted his family in acquiring millions to influence him on public policy or legislation. His family was effectively marketing time shares in a senator, a vice president and now a president.

Whether or not Biden delivered, the family business corrupted the functions of government by converting offices into types of commodities. That is the case regardless of whether or not they delivered. It is akin to an extortionist taking money without any intent to follow through on threats of disclosure or use of damaging material. Even in today’s willfully blind politics, every voter should be able to agree on two simple facts.

First, influence peddling is corruption long opposed by the government and denounced by both parties.

Second, if the president knew that his son and uncles were using him for influence peddling, Joe Biden is also corrupt.

That is why it comes down to knowledge. Under federal case law, money and gifts going to one’s family is often treated as a benefit for the purposes of corruption or bribery. Indeed, many of the current Democratic members previously voted that money going to family members of a judge was impeachable. I represented that judge in the last judicial impeachment tried on the Senate floor.

It is highly implausible that the president did not know about the influence peddling. There were news articles on the allegations, and the Biden family has been accused of influence peddling for decades. It is a virtual family business.

It is just barely arguable that the danger posed by a second Trump term warranted voting for someone as manifestly corrupt as Joe Biden. It is a lot less arguable when Biden is trailing Trump in the polls as badly as he is at present.

Long-time Chicago Alderman Ed Burke and Charles Cui were found guilty on all counts (except for conspiracy) in his federal trial. At ABC 7 Chicago Sarah Schulte, Craig Wall, and Chuck Goudie report:

CHICAGO (WLS) — Former Chicago Alderman Ed Burke was found guilty of all counts except for one in his federal corruption case Thursday.

The former Chicago alderman faced 14 counts, including racketeering, bribery and attempted extortion.

The case against the once-most powerful member of the Chicago City Council centered around him using his public position for private gain.

“Burke has his hand out for money. He tied the giving of official action by him to the giving of money in 3 different corrupt episodes,” said US Attorney Morris Pasqual.

Burke was chairman of the powerful Finance Committee. The context of this case is that he was fingered by an FBI informant. The Speaker of the Illinois House and chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party, Mike Madigan, is also facing trial on charges of corruption. The “Chicago 4”, those accused of bribing Mr. Madigan, have already been convicted.

I have several points to make. First, it is impossibly naive to believe that the charges on which Mssrs. Burke and Madigan were arrested are their only corrupt acts. Second, it is simply not credible that such corruption could have persisted without the knowledge not just of their colleagues but of a compliant media. You will not hear it from the Chicago media but they knew. They had to know.

In Mr. Madigan’s instance it strains credulity to believe that he might have been chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party for 40 years without high-ranking national Democrats and the media being aware of the corruption and looking the other way as long as he delivered.

So, what’s next? I expect a number of appeals in the case to the 7th Circuit. I don’t expect them to succeed. Then it will begin to get interesting. How long will Mr. Burke, knowing what he knows, survive in federal jail? That gives him two unpalatable alternatives: the prospect of meeting with an unfortunate accident in jail or rolling on, essentially, the entire Democratic Party apparatus. Burke is 79. Any sentence is likely to be a life sentence. Maybe he’ll die before he goes to prison.

It has been observed in comments here that violent crime is trending down. I think the title of this article published by the Council on Criminal Justice pretty much says it all: “Homicide, Other Violent Crimes Decline in U.S. Cities but Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels”.

Also, as I’ve pointed out in the past, I’m wary of crime statistics these days. Are the statistics based on the number of crimes, the number of crimes reported, or the number of police responses to reports? It may well make a difference.

Here’s an interesting factoid. Chicago’s homicide rate per 100,000 population has increased, sometimes sharply, in every presidential election year since 2004. 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Prior to 2008 there was no such pattern.

I don’t have an explanation for that.

2024 will make an interesting test case. Will homicides in Chicago increase, decrease, or remain the same in 2024?

In the Wall Street Journal Jerry Hendrix warns:

Recently the news broke that the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney had fended off several missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea. While Biden administration officials tried to frame the battle, for a battle it surely was, as the Carney’s defending nearby merchant ships, it seems clear that Iranian-supplied Houthis were targeting the Carney directly as well as the commercial ships it was accompanying.

This was only one of several recent assaults on American naval assets in the region. They have happened despite the presence of the Ford carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and the Eisenhower strike group in the Gulf of Aden—a conventional level of naval deterrence that should have reduced aggressive activities by U.S. enemies. Instead, Iran attacked American ships and allies.

These events show that American naval deterrence is failing, and a recent report from the Sagamore Institute concludes that it could soon evaporate.

concluding:

America’s failure to expand and maintain its fleet, or stand by its word, may have already entirely eroded U.S. naval deterrence. The Navy’s budget, size and force architecture all need urgent attention from Congress if the U.S. is to preserve its ability to deter its enemies. Failure to do so imperils global trade as well as America’s place in the world and the safety of its people.

I don’t know how Capt. Hendrix knows that the Carney was attacked. We say the ship wasn’t attacked; the Houthis say that they didn’t attack it. Perhaps he has insider information?

IMO if we had deliberately set out to weaken our military deterrent we would have done much what we have over the last 30 years. In terms of the Navy here was our force strength in 1992:

At present we have 291 active battle force level ships.

As I see it military deterrence has much in common with criminal deterrence. For deterrence to be effective enforcement must be swift and sure. Over the last 30 years we have overutilized our armed forces (Somalia, Yugoslavia, Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan). Rarely have we achieved our objectives. The advantage we have is a seasoned military. Over-seasoned, some would say. Now we’ve given away our inventories of munitions to Ukraine. We’re producing more at a rate below the rate at which Ukraine is using them.

I believe we should use our military much more sparingly than we have but when we use it our military should achieve our objectives decisively. That also means that the objectives must be ones that can be achieved with military force. So, for example, we were never going to turn Iraq or Afghanistan into liberal democracies allied with the United States. That was beyond our military’s capabilities.

I’m not certain what objectives Capt. Hendrix wants to accomplish or what sort of navy would be required to accomplish them. Maintaining freedom of navigation for merchant vessels has historically been seen as a vital U. S. interest. Unfortunately, ours is not the only navy whose battle forces have declined over the last 30 years. Both France’s and Britain’s have declined precipitously while China’s navy increased enormously. I don’t think that our navy should be the world’s only force maintaining freedom of navigation for merchant vessels but we may have no alternative.