We are one month away from the midterm elections and I wanted to put my marker down on what I think is going to happen there. The good news for Democrats is that I think that they will take control of the House and, narrowly, the Senate. When the dust has settled I expect Democrats to hold about between 218 and 230 seats in the House and 51 seats in the Senate.
The bad news for Democrats is that it will not be a “wave election” and their majorities will be small and fractious. I define a “wave” as 20 or more House seats.
As evidence for that view I would suggest reading Bryan Bennett’s post at Ruy Teixeira and Michael Bahareen’s Substack. The short version is that the Democratic “brand advantage” is sufficiently low that they are unlikely to overperform it but rather to underperform it. From the linked Substack:
The x-axis is “relative brand advantage” (RBA), which calculates how much higher or lower favorability for the Democratic Party is compared to the Republican Party. For example, in 2006, the average net favorability of the Democratic Party was net +13 and the average net favorability of the Republican Party was net -9; thus, the RBA for Democrats was +22. In 2018, the average net favorability of the Democratic Party was net +1 and the average net favorability of the Republican Party was net -16; thus, the RBA for Democrats was +17. In Q3 of 2026, the average net favorability of the Democratic Party is net -13 and the average net favorability of the Republican Party is net -17; thus, the relative brand advantage for Democrats is just +4. This post does not dwell on the deterioration of the Democratic Party brand, of which I’ve also written about extensively and expressed many concerns about, but I will say this: despite having a narrow RBA, favorability of the Democratic Party dropping by a net 26 points over the last two decades is deeply problematic and should not be overlooked.
and
When charted this way, Democrats have tended to underperform or equal their RBA in the generic ballot—and, ultimately, in the actual election results.
In others words an extraordinary presidency may produce an ordinary midterm correction.
The greater question is how will the Democrats use their new majorities? Specifically, will they devote their efforts to “fighting Trump”, will they focus on tiny minorities, or will they do their best to help ordinary Americans? I’m hoping it will be the last but I’m concerned the Democratic leadership will not be able to subdue or even resist their most extreme subfactions.
If your election results pan out, I would predict at least 3 impeachment trials in the next Congress.
When one steps back, to date Trump’s second term has a “Hollywood sequel” feel to it; the plot feels similar, but with bigger budget, bigger effects.
So we have to beat the number of impeachments from the first term.