I was rather disappointed by the Washington Post op-ed written by Lewis Libby and Jason Fields. They described their objectives well enough:
Coercion, not ideological fervor, buoys the Islamic republic. To sustain an unpopular regime, the core believers recruit thousands of trigger-pullers who brutalize civilians. They also pay regional proxies, in cash and in weapons, to intimidate foes and to spread an image of a hegemonic Iran. The domestic opposition calls them “mercenaries.” They don’t come cheap. Oil — and crucially, the promise of future oil revenue — greases the empire.
and
The regime’s supporters are likewise reassured by steps that Washington hasn’t taken. The U.S. military hasn’t destroyed Iran’s major oil production and export facilities, as the Allies did to Germany and Japan in World War II. U.S. sailors have escorted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but that effort has been nowhere near the scale of the operation President Ronald Reagan ordered in the 1980s. Ground troops haven’t seized the coastline or the regime’s enriched uranium stockpiles, much as the United States was willing to do in Kuwait and Iraq in the 1990s and early 2000s. America hasn’t bearded Iran’s patrons, China and Russia, either.
The shortcomings of the piece were that the authors didn’t describe how we could accomplish those goals without violating the laws of war. Which Iranian oil production and export facilities would constitute lawful military objectives under the laws of war, and on what basis? How do they suggest we “beard” China and Russia? Should we bomb them? Target their political leadership?
All of that points to the difficulties in breaking a regime’s internal coercive apparatus while maintaining the international commitments into which we’ve chosen to enter using air and naval power alone.
It’s hard to forget that Lewis Libby is Scooter Libby, an advisor to Di k Cheney. I would think anyone involved so heavily in the Iraq war wouldnt have a lot of credibility. Anyway, if we go all out in destroying Iran’s oilfields I would expect Iran to do the same to the other gulf countries. Dont see how that would benefit us. Also, the only reason things haven’t been worse is China pulling back on its oil consumption. How would doing bad things, even if not enumerated, to China help us?
Early in the war we were told Iran couldn’t hold out much longer, but they have. I am always leery of these articles that claim that Iran’s regime has no support. Few of the people writing this stuff have any expertise on Iran and are just parroting others. I suspect there are a fair number of true believers. Regardless, with oil reserves running out, pipeline down and strait still not open I expect prices to see significant increases. Only chance for real success I see ie getting rid of nukes and opening strait is invasion and occupation. Heck, maybe we give Scooter a second chance.
Steve