Nota Bene

If the claims in this somewhat rambling post by Peter Hamby at Puck News Online (no relation to the venerable British humor magazine or the San Francisco literary magazine but another Puck) are to be believed it should provide Democrats with some things to think about:

oe Biden has a problem with young voters—and it’s not just because he’s 79. Since the spring, Biden’s approval ratings have fallen across the board, a spiral worsened by the ongoing pandemic, rising inflation and a fragmented media. Gas prices, which always correlate with national sentiment, are a particular source of public dissatisfaction. But one group of voters is making the problem worse—and it’s not S.U.V.-driving, Facebook-addled Boomers. It’s Americans under the age of 30.

Gen Z (and older millennials) showed up in record numbers during the anti-Trump midterms of 2018, and broke for Biden by a more than 20-point margin in the 2020 election. But today, according to Ben Wessel, a Democratic strategist who formerly directed the youth outreach group NextGen, “almost all his negative movement comes from young people. Older voters are wildly stable in mild dislike for Biden.” Data released by The Economist and YouGov last week found that just 29 percent of American adults between the ages of 18-29 approve of the job Biden is doing as president, and a full 50 percent of young people now disapprove of Biden’s performance. Go ahead and read that sentence twice.

I found the post mostly notable in its one-liners. Here’s a sample:

“Young people identify with movements, not parties,” Kawashima-Ginsberg told me.

Like most voters, Gen Z and younger millennials pay attention to politics and issues when they are relevant—when they directly intersect with their lives.

Many millennials, he told me, have found fulfillment in the world beyond politics, and feel somewhat less urgency than Gen Z, which is less likely to sit elections out, even if they aren’t enamored with their choices on the ballot.

A majority of young voters said that American democracy is either “in trouble” or “failing.”

Young people are part of 1:1 messaging with their friends.

Read the whole thing. I at least found it interesting.

To a certain degree it’s self-refuting. Being focused on what affects you directly and being deeply interested in “green issues” are inconsistent. The first is talking about issues (negative risks that have already happened) while the second is talking about risks (things that might or might not happen). I would add that catastrophizing (thinking things are actually worse than they are) is not a healthy behavior.

What I think should concern Democrats is that a lot of Democratic strategizy has been based on a sort of “Brezhnev doctrine”—once a Democrat, always a Democrat—but I don’t believe that’s supported by scholarship. Except for certain groups and young people are not one of those groups, changes in life conditions may result in changing political parties. Things like getting a job, buying a house, having a child, changing where you live. Yesterday’s youth voters may be tomorrow’s revolutionary socialists are they may be tomorrow’s conservatives.