My Predictions for 2008 (Updated)

Leaping once more fearlessly and brainlessly into the fray, here are my predictions for 2008.

  • Ron Paul won’t win a single state primary. If he runs as a Libertarian or other third party, he won’t get a single electoral vote. He won’t be elected president.
  • Nothing of any substance will be accomplished by the Congress on any of the following issues: immigration, healthcare, Social Security, education, product safety of imports.
  • China’s Olympics will be huge, opulent, and have precisely the opposite effect that, presumably, the Chinese government wants to achieve. Rather than showing that China has made it, it will highlight the enormous contrasts in modern China. Citizen journalism may play a part.
  • On December 31, 2008 there will be at least 80,000 American soldiers in Iraq.
  • Neither the U.S. nor Israel will either bomb or invade Iran.
  • In fact we won’t engage in any major military action that we’re not already engaged in. Have you ever noticed we don’t go to war in election years?
  • President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives.
  • No Country for Old Men will win the Academy Award for Best Picture.
  • No Chicago sports team will win a championship series.
  • If the presidential contest is Clinton versus Romney, Romney wins. If it’s Clinton vs. McCain, McCain wins. If it’s Edwards vs. Huckabee, nobody wins.
  • The naming of Benazir Bhutto’s teenaged son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardawi, as head of the PPP will increasingly be recognized as a sign that there never was a good option or a soft landing for Pakistan.
  • The sub-prime mortgage fiasco will continue to perk along with various measures being proposed and taken to address it. All of the measures will be aimed at increasing liquidity, ironic since the problem is one of confidence not liquidity. Nothing will be done about the incentives in the form of billions of dollars in commissions and bonuses paid for peddling bogus financial instruments. House prices have a little farther to fall.
  • When the television writers’ strike ends it will turn out to have been a debacle both for the writers and the Big 3 television networks.
  • At least one of the following won’t make it to the end of the year: Fidel Castro, Pervez Musharraf, Robert Mugabe.
  • Some state will have a serious financial crisis caused by lower revenues than expected and the unwillingness either to cut spending or increase taxes. It may well be Illinois.
  • Video game sales will continue to increase, music and movie sales will continue to decrease. The video game Mass Effect will have strong sales, spawning sequels, imitators, and a movie version which is likely to include at least some of the people supplying voices for the characters.

I’ll post other people’s predictions as I run across them.


Other people’s predictions:

William Safire’s Office Pool
Jonathan Singer at MyDD
Brookston Beer Bulletin
Mover Mike
Rex Dixon
Damian Penny
Sideways Mencken has a delightfully cynical set of predictions

25 comments… add one
  • PD Shaw Link

    Does the National League Championship Series (otherwise known as the team that gets to lose to the American League champion) constute a “championship”?

  • No. World Series is, though.

  • pennywit Link

    Here’s something to ruminate on: If Pakistan goes down the path of anarchy, will the US and other Western powers be FORCED to invade and become the “foreign occupier” just to keep certain hands off the nuclear button?


  • Much of the reason that I’ve been urging an updating of the Kennedy Doctrine for the 21st century.

    If France and Germany are interested in invading and occupying Pakistan, I say more power to them. If we take military action against Pakistan it should be from 20,000 feet or via ICBM.

  • JOHN Link

    You could have stopped after the word “Congress” in your second prediction.

  • JOHN Link

    and eliminated “of any substance”.

  • “The naming of Benazir Bhutto’s teenaged son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardawi, as head of the PPP will increasingly be recognized as a sign that there never was a good option or a soft landing for Pakistan.”

    This one has already come true, if you count my blog post of this afternoon! Of course, it’s technically still 2007 . . .

  • Jamie Link
  • >> The Yankees will not win the World Series.

    >> President Bush will have an opening to fill on the Supreme Court.

    >> Al Qaida will make a concerted effort to affect the U.S. elections (i.e., throw them to the soft-on-terrorism side a la Spain) by the obvious means (I don’t want to even say).

    >> The utter failure of a concept to monetize You Tube will be recognized and major changes in the business model will be announced.

    >> Another high-profile athlete will be indicted for a felony — charges serious enough to end his career.

    >> Microsoft will do nothing meaningful to improve Windows Vista.

    I have no idea why I’m doing this.

  • But Patriots will still rule…

  • Hank B Link


    1. McCain wins Prez, beats Hillary. Vice-President is Fred Thompson

    2. Green Bay wins Super Bowl, upset the mighty Pats

    3. Dems gain 2-3 seats in Senate, 5-10 seats in the House

    4. Scientists will not develop AIDS vaccine

    5. Detroit Tigers win World Series

    You can bank on these, baby!


  • I agree with the writer’s strike prediction. When will unions recognize they’ve outlived their usefulness?

    This may, however, mean a boon for non-union writers.

  • Ray P Link

    1. Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Evan Byah of Indiana (V.P.) win White House

    2. Indiana votes Democratic in Presidential Election

    3. Democrats gain 4-5 seats in US Senate

    4. Senator Craig found to have had more affairs with men

    5. Subprime Meltdown impacts US economy again in 6/08

    6. Californian’s vote in favor of nearly universal heatlhcare

  • Richard Gardner Link

    “Some state will have a serious financial crisis caused by lower revenues than expected and the unwillingness either to cut spending or increase taxes”

    Local governments too – but due to buying into mortgage based securities. Today’s story in Seattle is that the King County Investment Pool has about 5% of its money at significant risk from commercial paper funds that ALREADY have not made required paybacks. This Pool is where tax property money is parked by the various taxing authorities, such as school and fire districts.

    I remember seeing stories about similar issues in FL – standby for more. And lawsuits.

  • Oh, yes, indeed, Richard. I’ve been predicting that for years. And I read the stories about Florida, too. The only thing that surprised me was that the auditing of the local accounts would have allowed such a thing.

  • Joe R. Link

    In the lead-up to the Olympic games, Taiwan will formally declare independence.

  • The Federal Department of Justice will announce a criminal investigation of Mayor Jerry Sanders of San Diego CA. The investigation will result in a criminal indictment in 2009 and conviction and imprisonment in 2010.

    The San Diego Union/Tribune will be sold at a bargain basement price and folded by the new owners. Who will subsequently start a new daily to be called The San Diego Tribune.

    The U. S. government will become the sole provider of fire insurance in fire prone areas.

    The MSM will reveal that Iraqi special forces are operating in Syria and Iran, with support from private citizens in both countries. The Iraqi and U. S. governments will simultaneously deny the news, and deplore its release.

    Rumors of talks between Russia and the United States regarding the sale of the Russian Far East to the U. S. will start to appear.

    China will announce deep concerns regarding the treatment of Chinese citizens in the Russian Far East.

    Moscow and Washington will announce preliminary plans for joint military exercises in the Russian Far East. Exercises to include the construction of infrastructure capable of handling American equipment.

    The Israeli government will fall after a major security scandal. The new government will announce that Israel is going to full wartime footing, and begin a campaign of terrorist suppression. Europe, the U. S., and the U. N. will be told to go bugger themselves.

    The Conservative and Reform branches of Judaism will announce the liberalization of conversion to Judaism. The Orthodox and Ultra Orthodox branches will declare the Conservative and Reform branches non-Jews and and anathema. Orthodox and Ultra Orthodox Jews will subsequently migrate to New York City, which they will declare the New Jerusalem. In retaliation Conservative and Reform Jews will welcome Kairites back to the fold.

    Pitched battles between Russian forces and rebels from the city of Gorki will be fought along the rail corridor between Gorki and Moscow. Gorki will declare its independence in 2010.

    Fighting will also break out between the PLA and local forces in Northern China. Unit sized defections to rebel forces will be small at first.

    Moscow will deny reports of advances by rebel forces in Chechnya. Will announce the acceleration of the withdrawal of government forces from that republic, leaving heavy equipment behind for use by the Chechen government.

    Reports out of Finland, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria will appear telling of unrest in European Russia. Poland will request NATO assistance, while Finland, Hungary, and Bulgaria will seek mutual defense agreements.

    Germany, France, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria will announce the emergency expansion of military forces. Germany and France will announce preliminary talks regarding military cooperation in the case of the need for a “massive foreign intervention in a major geographical region with inadequate infrastructure”. This last will be viewed as bloody obvious code words for Russia.

    Rumors of secret plans by the United States to send illegal immigrants to the Russian Far East will appear on The Internet.

    A pundit for a major failing American newspaper will write an opinion piece deploring blogs and blogging. (You’ve gotta do at least one safe bet. 🙂 )

    There you have my predictions. Next year let’s see how (in)accurate I was.

  • I think your prediction on the Russian Far East and China are fascinating. While I think it’s much more likely that China will simply annex portions of it, especially if the problems with the delivery of eastern Siberian oil to China continue to lag.

    I think the Chinese authorities will probably keep a lid on things through the Olympics.

  • Having a compliant (and complacent) foreign press to manipulate will certainly help the Chinese there.

    And a few more predictions.

    Italy will offer land and financial assistance to illegal immigrants in the United States. An Italian version of the American homestead act will be included in the deal.

    Reports will appear regarding Canadian plans to build rail and highway connections to the Arctic coast.

    There will be an anti-TSA incident at an airport. Arrests will be made, but most charges will be dismissed.

    Greyhound will expand their bus fleet, to better serve disgruntled former airline customers.

    Rail companies will begin talks to coordinate rail rehabilitation and expansion.

    Penalties for animal abuse will be toughened.

    Rumors will start to circulate on the Internet regarding Hillary Clinton’s plans to expand the American military.

    The Republic of Ghana will announce governmental reforms to address persistent problems. American advisors to be involved, including an American Governor General.

    A small time blogger will be sued by a small time company for something he said. The blogosphere will jump on the company.

    Glenn Reynolds will start accepting comments at Instapundit. (You also need at least one “like that’s gonna happen” prediction. 🙂 )

  • Fletcher Christian Link

    One I hope doesn’t happen:

    Recent and continuing unrest in Pakistan results in Taliban sympathisers taking over Pakistan and subsequently a nuclear war between Pakistan and India, with Kashmir as the spark for the powderkeg.

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