It describes a whole bunch of things.
From 2008-2014, it is flat in the hangover from the GFC, which corresponds to Obama consistently rating poorly in the economy and mediocre overall.
2015-2016, it breaks out of the post GFC range, that’s when Obama’s poll ratings improved and moved from the mid 40’s to the 50’s.
2016-2019; it continues to increase through Trump’s first 3 years. Consistently Trump’s rating on the economy is above 50 even as his overall rating is in the low to mid 40’s.
2020, despite a pandemic shutdown which crashed household income, government assistance (“stimulus”) was so large that disposable income went up! A likely cause why Trump economic ratings held up
2021 (Q1-Q2), continued stimulus in the first two quarters kept disposable income at the pandemic plateau, which corresponds to Bdien’s highest approval in economy and overall.
2021 Q2 – mid 2022, withdrawal of stimulus caused decline of disposable income, corresponded to Biden’s approval rating crashing into the 30’s.
mid 2022 – 2024 — slight recovery in disposable income, but mostly flat in new range. Biden’s rating recovered into the low 40’s.
Somewhat off topic, but Zero Hedge is reporting that interest payments on the accumulated US debt will reach almost $1.2 T by the end of the current fiscal year, 9/30. That is second only to Social Security payments, which will reach $1.5 T this fiscal year. By the end of 2024 or early 2025, interest payments will exceed Social Security.
We continue to add $1 T of debt every 100 days. The total now exceeds $35 T. And this is in peacetime. If the Trotskyite neocons succeed in getting even one of their deeply desired wars (Russia, Iran, China), what will happen?
Everyone underestimates the importance of the Covid response to economic numbers.
Reports out of Italy were paramount to the overreaction, IMO!, ( I did lose the love of my life), but you simply cannot shut down the economic activity without terrible run on effects. Borrowing and helicoptering money to the public is the cause of the inflation we’re seeing.
Of course Trump floundered, any president would have.
I’m actually surprised inflation is not worse.
I’m voting for Trump and his policies because I believe Covid was the monkey wrench in the economy he won’t be facing this time around.
Conservatives are also working to make the replacement list of Presidential appointments so that the James Comey treachary is not repeated.
I think real disposable income per capita explains more of the “intuitive” feelings about President’s and the economy.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tDNR
It describes a whole bunch of things.
From 2008-2014, it is flat in the hangover from the GFC, which corresponds to Obama consistently rating poorly in the economy and mediocre overall.
2015-2016, it breaks out of the post GFC range, that’s when Obama’s poll ratings improved and moved from the mid 40’s to the 50’s.
2016-2019; it continues to increase through Trump’s first 3 years. Consistently Trump’s rating on the economy is above 50 even as his overall rating is in the low to mid 40’s.
2020, despite a pandemic shutdown which crashed household income, government assistance (“stimulus”) was so large that disposable income went up! A likely cause why Trump economic ratings held up
2021 (Q1-Q2), continued stimulus in the first two quarters kept disposable income at the pandemic plateau, which corresponds to Bdien’s highest approval in economy and overall.
2021 Q2 – mid 2022, withdrawal of stimulus caused decline of disposable income, corresponded to Biden’s approval rating crashing into the 30’s.
mid 2022 – 2024 — slight recovery in disposable income, but mostly flat in new range. Biden’s rating recovered into the low 40’s.
makes sense, especially in a service based economy, disposable income keeps it clicking.
Somewhat off topic, but Zero Hedge is reporting that interest payments on the accumulated US debt will reach almost $1.2 T by the end of the current fiscal year, 9/30. That is second only to Social Security payments, which will reach $1.5 T this fiscal year. By the end of 2024 or early 2025, interest payments will exceed Social Security.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2024/09/13/endgame-interest-on-us-debt-surpasses-1-trillion-for-first-time-ever-exploding-august-budget-deficit-to-record-high/
We continue to add $1 T of debt every 100 days. The total now exceeds $35 T. And this is in peacetime. If the Trotskyite neocons succeed in getting even one of their deeply desired wars (Russia, Iran, China), what will happen?
The difficulty of maintaining global hegemon status with such large debt payments has also been pointed out.
Since disposable income was brought up grocery prices are now below 2019 prices adjusted for income.
https://x.com/ernietedeschi/status/1833855226794709405?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Everyone underestimates the importance of the Covid response to economic numbers.
Reports out of Italy were paramount to the overreaction, IMO!, ( I did lose the love of my life), but you simply cannot shut down the economic activity without terrible run on effects. Borrowing and helicoptering money to the public is the cause of the inflation we’re seeing.
Of course Trump floundered, any president would have.
I’m actually surprised inflation is not worse.
I’m voting for Trump and his policies because I believe Covid was the monkey wrench in the economy he won’t be facing this time around.
Conservatives are also working to make the replacement list of Presidential appointments so that the James Comey treachary is not repeated.