A commenter to a post recently complained that LLM AI had induced a sharp increase in data center construction. The chart above puts the increase in data centers into historical context. The expansion of data-center capacity clearly predates the widespread adoption of LLMs. LLM AI may have accelerated that expansion, but it did not initiate it. It does illustrate increases, particularly since 2010, in utilization of the Internet. The iPhone was introduced in 2007.
In other words the demand for new data centers is a continuation of a process that has been going on for some time.
Dave Schuler: LLM AI may have accelerated that expansion, but it did not initiate it.
Data-centers != Internet traffic.
You send an 83 character message to Deep Thought, “What is the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything?” After seven and a half million years of calculation, it sends back two characters, “42”. Not much in terms of internet traffic. But quite a lot of computation.
No, data centers are all of the factors listed in my graph. They are data, websites, LLM AI, streaming video, and online shopping. They aren’t just transmission.
Dave Schuler: No, data centers are all of the factors listed in my graph.
Per the graph: “The data center line is a facility count (Synergy Research), a construction-activity proxy, not traffic volume.” New data-centers are much larger than older data-centers. Total capacity is doubling about every four years, with the newest gigascale campuses measured in gigawatts. Note that your graph is logarithmic. That by itself tells the story.
Exactly. Don’t want new data centers? Put down your smartphones. Stop streaming video.
From your example in the modern era compute and other web services are products of data centers. Not merely data transmission. You’re trying to separate things that are interconnected.
Dave Schuler: From your example in the modern era compute and other web services are products of data centers.
Sure, but AI is a magnitude larger and quite likely soon to be two magnitudes larger. Things that are manageable at one scale may not be at another scale, especially when the scaling is very rapid.
AI >> Search (traditional)
Look at the log scale in your own graph. What shows as a linear trend is exponential growth.
“Don’t want new data centers? Put down your smartphones. Stop streaming video…………………………. Not merely data transmission. You’re trying to separate things that are interconnected.”
While Zach flails about, for some unknown reason, Dave plants a hammer on the nails head. Propaganda goes only so far. Explain to people what they are really opposing and it will end right now. Dems just perceive a poll driven election issue. Dishonest fucks, as always.
For the umpteenth time, neither electricity nor water concerns will hold up to scrutiny or time; only media dishonesty will perpetuate it. The issue will be eminent domain. Fair treatment of those displaced, and NIMBY vs latency. And the sweet nectar of property taxes……..
And to a recent post, “steamrolling” is just juvenile thinking. I’m here in GA. #3 in datacenters. They are incentivizing data centers, not getting steam rolled.
Drew: And to a recent post, “steamrolling” is just juvenile thinking.
Maybe you’re from a different world. But on Earth, just putting up a residential development can be fraught with backroom deals, real estate speculation and political shenanigans. With AI, you’re looking at potentially trillions of dollars over the next few years. If you don’t think that might be an issue, you might try visiting planet Earth. Nice place in a lot of ways.
As for power, about 10% is projected to be consumed by AI by 2030.
The problems can be addressed, but that requires first recognizing the problems.
I am not sure what the left side of your graph means but having done a bit of reading on thei recently its pretty clear that the term data center is not well defined and it encompasses facilities that are pretty different. The new hyperscaler centers are much larger and use much more in resources than older centers. Anyway, using different definitions as was apparently done at this link below you get very different numbers showing that the number of hypersclae centers went from about 400 in 2017 to 1100 in 2024. That is a large increase and the number of centers being planned (in the pipeline) is increasing.
I think it’s fine if some places want to give companies tax breaks. I think it’s dishonest to then claim that places should want to have centers because it will increase tax revenue. It remains unclear to me why it makes you a NIMBY if you dont want to help finance something you dont want to begin with.
https://www.fierce-network.com/cloud/picture-data-center-boom-charts
Steve
Nice try, Zach.
I’m from the real world, not your childish fantasies. Governments are recruiting data centers. And factories, and Amazon distributors………,
It’s called economic growth.
Next thing I know people like you will be telling me global warming will kill us all by 1990, Covid requires government overlords, and now, AI is going to dismember our children in a programming error.
Grow up. The world adapts. Your philosophical views end up in the toilet.
Drew: Next thing I know people like you will be telling me global warming will kill us all by 1990, Covid requires government overlords, and now, AI is going to dismember our children in a programming error.
We don’t hold those positions, so those are strawman arguments, fallacies of diversion. Ignoring the points raised is a fallacy of irrelevance. As suggested, start with ordinary development. Your position appears to be that ordinary development never entails any issues of corruption whatsoever. Your reply is that pointing this out means being against development, which is a false dichotomy, a fallacy of presumption.
When money is at stake, corruption often follows. The more money involved, the more pressure there is to cut corners, dumping problems on others. Accountability is the key to minimizing the issues associated with development. Rust never sleeps.