Is a “Damp Squib” Enough?

I see that Ross Clark’s take on the EU agreement about Russian oil imports from his piece in The Spectator is fairly close to mine:

The agreement only really tries to bring an end to oil imports which arrive from Russia by ship. Imports via pipeline – which account for a quarter of the total – will be exempt. This is to ensure the continuation of supplies to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which are highly dependent on the pipelines – Slovakia obtains virtually all its oil in this way. The loudest whelp of joy from Monday night’s negotiations came from Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban, who boasted on Facebook that Hungary would be exempt from the embargo. It isn’t just Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, either – Poland and Germany will be allowed to continue to draw oil from Russian pipelines, although they have said they will try to stop doing this by the end of the year. Assuming they do meet this deadline, the best that can be hoped for is that by this time next year EU oil imports from Russia will be down by 90 per cent on pre-invasion levels – a long way from a complete cessation.

Meanwhile, gas continues to flow to Europe from Russia, and there is little hope of arresting this trade in the near-future – even if Germany is hurriedly building terminals so it can import liquified natural gas from Qatar and elsewhere. The EU has not yet begun trying to negotiate a cessation of gas imports, but when it does this is unlikely to end any more satisfactorily. There will be more horse-trading, more concessions, more get-out clauses and more drawn-out deadlines.

He characterizes the agreement as a “damp squib”. For those of you not up on your British-ese, a squib is a firecracker. While the Europeans delay and make promises, it gives the Russians plenty of time to line up new customers. China and India are very big countries, the Chinese and Indians have good eyes for bargains and the increasing price of oil allows the Russians to offer a pretty good bargain without losing much by it.

If we were genuinely serious about hurting Russia economically we would be doing everything in our power to bring the price of oil down including pumping as much of it as we could. Since that objective sounds well-aligned with the goal of reducing the bite of inflation for Americans, it does make me wonder why the Biden Administration isn’t embracing it. Who’s running the show?

6 comments… add one
  • bob sykes Link

    This morning the exchange rate was 61.67 rubles per the dollar, a 20% drop in the dollar’s value v.v. the ruble since last year (ca. 75:1). Oil was around $144/bbl. Russia is setting record trade and currency surpluses.

    Russia is not only winning the shooting war in Ukraine, it is also winning the sanctions war.

    PS. Russian officials like Medvedev and Lavrov have said that if the HIMARS missiles the US is giving Ukraine are used against Russia, Russia will attack US bases in the US and in Europe.

    So, what is Russia? Crimea has been formally integrated into sovereign Russian territory, but Ukriane disagrees. Will Ukraine attack Crimea with the new missiles? Does Russia think the Donbas and Mariupol are Russian?

  • bob sykes Link
  • Does Russia think the Donbas and Mariupol are Russian?

    They think that Ukraine is Russian. Remember “made-up country”?

  • walt moffett Link

    Cui Bono? Greens for sure, electrification subsidy seekers too. Losers tourism, suburban developers, the poor as always.

    Though, remember something about never cornering a guy in a brawl lest he pulls a gun.

    BTW, for S&G, read up on how the Norwegians are trying to come up with a way to show they not overly profiting from North Sea Oil sales.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    “doing everything in our power to bring the price of oil down including pumping as much of it as we could”

    A best guesstimate right now is barring rationing or a severe recession killing demand; the net domestic supply / demand will be roughly the same until 2024, maybe 2025.

    Look at these facts
    1) the US government is supplying the market to 1 million barrels / day from the SPR. But the release from the SPR will end by the end of the year; the SPR then needs to be refilled, so far it looks like at 1/3 the rate of release, to take place during 2023, 2024. That implies the net supply situation will deteriorate by 1.3 million barrels at the end of the year from the SPR until 2025.
    2) From domestic drilling; oilprice.com reported it is projected production will match its all time high in mid 2023, an increase of about 1.3 million barrels from today, reaching 1.7 million barrels by 2024.

    Those two factoids would suggest the net domestic supply / demand will not improve until 2024.

    Given these facts; one would have to look for production increases from other countries. The only countries with potential excess capacity that could be used in significant quantities before 2024 is Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries have their price…..

    As I mentioned since Feb, the only variable Biden has to drive down prices quickly is rationing. I still don’t get why there isn’t a voluntary push for WFH wherever possible; cutting back on discretionary travel, etc.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Upper middle class can WFH.
    Lower class workers drive older
    ICE vehicles to packing plants.
    Extend unemployment benefits to keep them home.
    It’s the Green choice.
    And is within the President’s powers, and good for the poll #’s.
    Or stay on the same course until the whole damn thing grinds to a halt.

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