Iran has responded

Iran has sent its reply:

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said Tuesday that Tehran was ready to enter “serious negotiations” over its disputed nuclear program but did not say whether it was willing to suspend uranium enrichment — the West’s key demand.

The negotiator, Ali Larijani, hand-delivered Iran’s response to a six-nation package of nuclear incentives aimed at persuading it to suspend enrichment. He gave the reply to ambassadors from Britain, China, Russia, France, Germany and Switzerland, state-run television said, without disclosing details.

“Iran is prepared as of Aug. 23 to enter serious negotiations” with the countries that proposed the package, state-run television quoted Larijani as telling the envoys.

Iranian officials close to the meeting said Iran offered a “new formula” to resolve the dispute as part of its formal response to the incentive package. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

“Iran has provided a comprehensive response to everything said in the Western package. In addition, Iran, in its formal response, has asked some questions to be answered,” one official said, without elaborating.

European Union officials declined to comment, saying they needed to study the Iranian offer.

Their response was likely to depend on how far Tehran was ready to go in suspending uranium enrichment — the cornerstone demand of the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, the six powers that agreed to the package of incentives if Iran compromises and punishments if it does not.

At U.N. headquarters in New York, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said the United States is prepared to quickly submit elements of a new Security Council resolution that would impose economic sanctions on Iran if it does not accept “the very, very generous offer” from the five permanent council members and Germany.

“We will obviously study the Iranian response carefully, but we are also prepared if it does not meet the terms set by the permanent five foreign ministers to proceed here in the Security Council, as ministers have agreed, with economic sanctions,” he said.

“If, on the other hand, the Iranians have chosen the path of cooperation, as we’ve said repeatedly, then a different relationship with the United States and the rest of the world is now possible,” he said.

We don’t know what that response is as yet although I suspect that there would be at least a little crowing if the response had been positive. Lack of such a reaction suggests to me that my prediction of yesterday was correct. Which would surprise no one.

My own view is that the preponderance of the evidence does, indeed, suggest that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. I’m not going to repeat that evidence here—just search my posts for “Iran”. It’s rather clear that ordinary Iranians believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons regardless of what their government says.

I think that perfectly reasonable intelligent well-informed people can believe otherwise. Here, for example. My view is that they’re using the wrong standard (“beyond reasonable doubt” rather than “a preponderance of the evidence”).

Over the last couple of months I’ve seen the following positions taken by various and sundry:

• Iran is developing nuclear weapons and already has some it’s obtained from North Korea or Pakistan. I doubt the latter.
• Iran is developing nuclear weapons and is months or a few years from having them (my view).
• Iran is developing nuclear weapons and is five or more years from having them
• Iran isn’t developing nuclear weapons

I have thought and continue to think that some sanctions regime other than outright invasion or bombing ought to have been in place a long time ago. Tempus is fugiting. We’ll see.