I don’t have a great deal to say about the two votes on independence that have taken place lately. The first was by the Iraqi Kurds, a majority of whom voted for independence from Iraq. The second was by Catalonians in which an overwhelming majority of a minority of Catalonian voters voted for independence from Spain.
All I have is questions. Can Iraq tolerate a Kurdish state? Will it allow the Kurds to retain Kirkuk? Will Turkey? Will Iran? Or Syria? Can a landlocked Kurdistan completely surrounded by enemies, practically guaranteed a permanent state of war and unrecognized by any major power survive?
Does Catalonia actually have a history separate from Spain? Is it a country or a linguistic community? Will Spain tolerate an independent Catalonia? Will it be recognized by the European Union? By other countries?
What is a country? What is the unit of measure of national sovereignty? The county? The city? The block? The household? The individual? How is that going to work?
Are there any instances of of people being given a country? Or do peoples take their countries?
Here’s another question: now that we have armed and trained the Iraqi Kurds to fight ISIS, will they tolerate continued rule from a federal government they don’t want?
And another: should they?
And another: are lines drawn on maps at the end of the colonial period without taking nationalities into account actually worth preserving?
All questions the Iraqis will need to consider. I certainly don’t feel that the U. S. should feel any compunction to maintain Iraq’s present borders.
re Kurds — I think those are the right questions, and would add that in addition to none of the regional actors wanting to recognize Kurdish independence and to recognize their aspirational borders (Kirkuk), the Kurds aren’t united. At some point I would expect neighboring countries to whichever Kurdish factions are the most hostile to Iraqi Kurds. Also relevant that the Turkmans and the Assyrians in “Kurdistan” oppose Kurdish independence; true minorities often tend to want larger polities for their protection.
I don’t think the Kurds have a moral claim to independence under the current Constitution as they are not treated as a second class to the majority.
As to Catalonia, it seems like the most prosperous region of Spain doesn’t want to share any more. What would happen if the DC to NYC corridor embraced an independence movement, or London decided to withdraw from Great Britain?
As to the Kurds, they represent a threat to the territorial integrity of five countries: Armenia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Those countries will use force to maintain their current borders. Do not be surprised to see a joint Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish military operation against the Iraqi Kurds.
As to Catalonia, all bets are off. The Spanish government’s very heavy handed attempt to suppress the vote, injuring over 800 people in the attempt, has inflamed the Catalonian population, and anything is possible, including an actual insurrection at the outer limit. This action might also reignite the Basque independence movement. Spain is in big trouble.
The Iraqi Kurds have had de facto independence since 1991 and it’s unlikely that will change. No one will provide them with a legitimate de jure claim of independence. They will continue to exist in the grey zone similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.