In his latest Wall Street Journal column Holman Jenkins observes:
As we go down this road, let’s be realistic about a few things. Some say it was a mistake to open the door to Ukraine NATO membership while simultaneously saying “not yet.†But this is the hindsight fallacy. Just as arguably, this half-measure deterrent worked until President Obama failed to enforce a red line in Syria. It worked while the unpredictable Donald Trump was president. Joe Biden certainly pulled out nearly every stop to warn Mr. Putin off his mistake.
Possibly the only way to imagine a peaceful Russia is with NATO or something like it on every border closing the door to regional conflict. Any Ukraine that emerges now, far from being neutralized or disarmed, will have to be bristling with weapons or allies or today’s war will be a down payment on the next.
Unless you believe that Russia is eternally hostile to the rest of Europe there was another way: incorporate Russia into Europe rather than distancing it from it. But I agree that ship has sailed—the process would need to have been started 30 years ago.
Beyond that I think it depends on your assumptions. If you see Russia as the equivalent of the Soviet Union, aiming for world domination, then he’s right. I don’t see it quite that way and I don’t see being anti-Russian as a winning posture for anybody. But I was wrong about Putin’s invading Ukraine so who knows?
There continue to be an enormous mass of bad assumptions. The entire world has not sanctioned Russia; at this point it’s primarily the U. S. and Europe. China, India, Mexico, Arab countries, Central and South American countries, and African countries have not imposed sanctions on Russia yet. Russian oil and gas continues to be imported even by most of the countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. Can sanctions on Russia be effective without China’s participation or imposing sanctions on China?
From a long view, it is remarkable how things have gone.
Recall after 2001, Putin had cooperated in the Central Asian bases which the US used in the early years of the Afghan war.
Or that early in Putin’s tenure; he seriously asked if Russia could join NATO. Like this article in the Atlantic in July 2001 (before Sept 2001).
Or this quote in the Washington Post.
“Why not? Why not?” Putin said when asked by BBC interviewer David Frost about Russian membership. “I do not rule out such a possibility . . . in the case that Russia’s interests will be reckoned with, if it will be an equal partner.”
“Russia is a part of European culture, and I do not consider my own country in isolation from Europe and from . . . what we often talk about as the civilized world,” Putin said. “Therefore, it is with difficulty that I imagine NATO as an enemy.”
In a way, what I see is having excluded Russia from the key Western organizations (NATO, EU); Russia has taken the hint and Putin’s ideology (to the extent there is one) is that Russia is a “distinct Eurasian civilization state”.
The problem with sanctions is world GDP distribution isn’t what it used to be.
The “West” (EU, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia) was 55% of world GDP in 1990. In 2019 it was 44%.
Many if not most Russia experts have been predicting that since the late 1990’s. Hindsight fallacy my ass.
And then the author suggests that Obama’s red line in Syria is dispositive as if that might have been the one thing that signaled a green light to Putin.
What a load of sophistry.
It’s only hindsight since the knowledgeable have been systematically and routinely ignored.
I think that’s the objective interpretation. There’s precious little objectivity.
Allow me to provide an example in which Russia is somewhat distinct. In general the farther West you go in Europe the greater the predisposition of cultures towards “guilt” in the guilt-shame spectrum in cultural anthropology. In general Russia is considered a “light shame” culture, i.e. as a motivator shame dominates but not by a lot.
There’s a dividing line in Ukraine (basically the Dnieper). East of the line the culture is “light shame”. West of the line the culture is “light guilt”. It approximates the distribution between Orthodox (East) and Catholic (West).
Speaking of being systematically ignored.
For the willfully blind, Joe Biden is the big guy, and a crook. Even the NYT’s now admits it.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-nyt-now-admits-the-biden-laptop?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyODUxMjc5OSwicG9zdF9pZCI6NTA1MTg5MzksIl8iOiJ0dVNaciIsImlhdCI6MTY0NzUyNzA1NiwiZXhwIjoxNjQ3NTMwNjU2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTI4NjYyIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.D29TAHc9EZVgYOEJue5xhwTOtChF7p28MuIolyCJQBU&s=r
Could you go back to Benghazi? That was more entertaining.
Steve
Deny, deny, deny. But your lack of any moral compass is duly noted.