Generational Change

I found this post by policy scholars Trevor Thrall, William Ruger, and Erik Goepner at War on the Rocks very interesting. It seems that Millennials, Americans born after 1981 will eventually come to dominate American politics and they have different foreign policy views than people born before 1946.

Does the rise of the Millennial Generation spell doom for America’s global leadership? To listen to those who support America’s continued deep engagement in the world the possibility is all too real. Recent polling from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows 47 percent of Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) think the United States should “stay out” of world affairs and only 51 percent think the country should “take an active part” in them. This is compared to well over 70 percent of the Baby Boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) and the Silent Generation (those born between 1928 and 1945), who favor an active role for the United States.

Today, with the midterms looming as a referendum on President Donald Trump, the nation’s most powerful Baby Boomer, several commentators have noted that Millennial turnout could very well dictate the composition of the next Congress – and their electoral weight will only keep growing. In 2016, Baby Boomers made up 31 percent of voters compared to the Millennials’ 27 percent. But with Boomer numbers declining and Millennials more likely to vote as they age, these young adults could overtake their elders at the ballot box in 2020.

For all the concerns about Millennials, however, the story behind America’s attitude shifts on foreign policy is more mixed than many realize.

Who knew? Is it possible that people who were toddlers in 2001 but are voting age now have different ideas about the foreign challenges that face us? That people who have never known an America that was not at war think differently about war?

If the authors’ characterization of the views of Millennials:

Though there are real signs of global leadership fatigue, younger Americans are not opposed to engagement with the world when it is mutually beneficial. In fact, younger Americans remain quite committed to international life in their own way. However, as our recent study published with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs reveals, the United States is experiencing an intergenerational shift in attitudes about the proper goals and tools of foreign policy. Relative to their elders, younger Americans are much less supportive of the use of military force abroad, but they are equally or more supportive of international trade, cooperation, and diplomacy.

For example, in our study, just 44 percent of Millennials and 54 percent of Generation Xers (those born between 1965 and 1980) believed that maintaining superior military power should be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, compared to 64 percent of Baby Boomers and 70 percent of the Silent Generation. In that same survey Millennials were also the least supportive of conducting airstrikes against Syria or the Islamic State, as well as coming to the aid of Asian allies like South Korea and Japan.

are true I actually find that encouraging—those are more like my views than the views of most of my contemporaries are.

Let me throw a few spanners into those works. First, although it used to be believed that political views and preferences were determined early in life and unlikely to change that is no longer believed to be the case. The reality is more complicated. It is not true that once a Democrat always a Democrat. There is copious evidence available now that suggests that major life events have a way of influencing your political views. IMO that stands to reason but apparently it comes as a bolt to the blue for many people. A woman for whom at 23 the availability of legal abortion is her most significant political concern may not think the same thing at 60 when she’s more worried about how she will be able to survive when she is too old to work. A man for whom at 20 the draft was his biggest political worry may find that his views evolve when buildings are collapsing around him due to terrorist attack when he’s in his 50s.

Second, the present political and foreign policy leadership in the United States are Silent Generation, people born before 1946. They aren’t Gen Xers or even Baby Boomers. For goodness sake Henry Kissinger is in his 90s and Madeleine Albright is 81 and their views are still influential. Zbigniew Brzezinski was influential right to the time of his death and he was a contemporary of Kissinger’s. In Illinois Mike Madigan is Silent Generation and showing no signs of turning over the reins of power to a younger generation, i.e. Baby Boomers let alone Gen Xers or Millennials.

Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos are Baby Boomers. Sergei Brin, Larry Page, and Elon Musk are Gen Xers. Mark Zuckerberg is a Millennial. Warren Buffett is very early Silent Generation almost Greatest Generation. The youngest Baby Boomers are in their mid-50s.

Over the period of the next 25 years Baby Boomers are likely to become more influential and powerful not less. Barring some technological breakthrough it is highly unlikely that I will live to see a time when Millennials dominate politics and foreign policy and if there is such a technological breakthrough it is less likely rather than more that Millennials will find themselves in positions of power.

We will have the Baby Boomers to kick around for the foreseeable future.