why a U. S. attack on Iran is unlikely:
The US is tapped out of ground forces to the point that any reinforcements for Afghanistan are coming out of Iraq or from extending tours, and air power is insufficient to actually achieve anything permenent while further isolating and de-legitimatizing the United States. Furthermore there is not a whole lot of combat power forward deployed at this time. Right now there is one carrier group in the western Indian Ocean/Arabian Pennisula littoral and that group is supporting operations in Iraq.
With small changes in emphasis that’s my position.
I’ve already pointed out some of the signs that we might be preparing for an attack on Iran. I don’t see the signs pointing in that direction right now. Meanwhile, most of the talk about attacking Iran is coming from opponents of the Bush Administration not from within the Bush Administration. I can’t tell whether that’s in an attempt to further weaken the Administration or because they honestly think that nothing, however idiotic, is beyond the Administration’s capacity.
