An individual working for Allied Van Lines reached out to me in reaction to one of my earlier posts. AVL’s “US Migration Report” is here. The top five states from which people are departing are:
- Illinois
- California
- New Jersey
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
I suspect if that were per 100K population the situation would be even more stark and look worse for Illinois. The top five cities from which people are moving are:
- New York
- Anaheim
- San Diego
- Chicago
- Riverside
Note that three of the top five are in California. The top five destination states are:
- Arizona
- South Carolina
- North Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
I’ve visited all of those states, some recently. I don’t think you could pay me to live in any of them. Here’s a passage from the linked page:
Large cities struggled to attract new residents in 2022. Besides the five listed above, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington D.C. also saw major losses. Even Phoenix, the most popular inbound city in 2021, fell to number six this year.
While housing prices obviously played a role, so did the coronavirus pandemic, which led to more Americans working from home. (Many of the current migration patterns in the US can be traced back to the pandemic.) Now that they no longer need to come into the office, people are free to live where they prefer. Whereas previously they had to stay in the city, now workers can choose to live further out, in communities with cheaper housing and better access to nature.
Before the pandemic, most Americans bought houses 15 miles from their old homes. Today, they’re buying houses 50 miles and greater from their old homes, outside major metro areas. Suburbs are cheaper, greener, and offer more living space than cities, hence it’s not surprising consumers are taking advantage of the opportunity and moving out.
I suspect a lot of the moves today are part of the reverse Great Migration.
Not sure if true in other states but in Texas people are mostly moving to Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin, all places with Democratic or Dem adjacent mayor. (Texas has some elections where people dont run as party members, but they usually have a history.) It looks like people want the lower housing costs and warmer winters but still want want some of the services/lifestyle you are more likely to find in a blue state.
I think each of those states have nice places to live, and places to avoid. We are old so it would nt be too bad but if wife was of childbearing age definitely wouldn’t live in one of those. If we did move to one of those states would stay away from rural/small towns since my experience has been that medical care in southern small towns is even less reliable than it is elsewhere.
Steve
More precisely; they are likely moving to the ruby red suburbs of those cities — all controlled by Republicans. On the other hand, they are likely conservatives in the source locales — Orange County, San Diego, Riverside are red/purple areas of California.
One speculation — if this is driven by white collar wfh (very plausible); what happens when blue collar wfh is possible, remote driving and remote controlled robots are quite achievable with current technology, it just needs a catalyst.
Nice try, steve. Look at curious’ first paragraph. That’s reality, not your fantasy.
Dave – your comment just shows personal preference. Further, you might as well say you wouldn’t go to Arcola or E St Louis if they paid you. The flight to the Carolinas is still ongoing. Lots of nice areas. Waking up and looking out over the Appalachians has its appeal.
Absolutely. It was not intended as anything else. However, I think it should be clear that no one is moving to Houston for the climate.
I think that’s a good point. I wonder how many of those who are moving moved into California in the first place? In other words are they individuals who are more predisposed to move?
“However, I think it should be clear that no one is moving to Houston for the climate.”
And yet they do to S Florida………