John D. Maurer’s piece at War on the Rocks on nuclear deterrence considers some important questions:
- Would the Biden Administration’s declared intention of announcing “no first use” weaken our nuclear deterrence?
- Do land-based nuclear weapons create more risks than they mitigate?
- Should we have more tactical nuclear weapons?
- Where does arms control fit in our nuclear deterrence policy?
I found that it made interesting reading. Thinking the unthinkable is becoming thinkable again.
The only time that atomic weapons were actually used in war, the message they delivered was clear.
Surrender or die.
The Japanese Emperor surrendered.
Would that even be possible anywhere outside of North Korea?
Does Joe Biden or Vladimir Putin even have the authority to surrender anyone but themselves? Effectively?
Would a direct threat to nuke Kiev have made the war develop any differently? Would carrying out that threat cause Ukrainians to surrender? I don’t think so.
Would a nuclear strike by Putin on Kiev bring nuclear retaliation? Doubt it.
Truth is, even Putin views their existence as deterrent, hardly useful in war.
Interesting program on NPR this past week, On Point worth listen
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/03/11/lessons-from-the-cold-war-putin-russia-america
The U.S. has been here before. The Cold War was defined by the fear of mutually-assured destruction.
“Each action that we took raised the prospect that it might escalate with the Soviet Union into a nuclear war,” President John F. Kennedy reflected on the threat of nuclear war.
Today, On Point: Does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signal a new Cold War?
Mary Elise Sarotte, post-Cold War historian. Professor of historical studies at Johns Hopkins University. Author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. (@e_sarotte)
Jack Beatty, On Point news analyst. (@JackBeattyNPR)
William Braun, professor of practice, national security strategy and policy at the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College.
Guess its time for Major Kong start warming up in the bull pen.
I miss Slim Pickins.