I wanted to make one last point today before turning to other subjects. The turnout in the Chicago mayoral runoff was about a third of the electorate. Of those 51% voted for Johnson and the remaining 49% for Vallas. Said another way about a sixth of Chicago voters have elected the next mayor. I believe the correct interpretation of this is that progressives were more energized than other Chicago voters but only just. There wasn’t a lot of excitement about either candidate.
Johnson won by doing exactly what I said he would: convincing blacks and Lakeside liberals to vote for him.
Here are some metrics we might consider in evaluating what’s going on: homicides, carjackings, one-way truck rental. Those are things less likely to be ignored or falsified. What are some other metrics that might be used?
There is a bill at the Illinois statehouse being debated about adopting ranked choice voting. Not sure if it’s going anywhere. I’ve read concerns about cost of such a change.
It does occur to me in Illinois’ current system of local elections, there is going to be a point at which the number of candidates running (over four pehaps) will tend to produce runoffs btw/ minority factions. It seems the Chicago election coalesced around candidates on opposite ends of the issue of crime, when a lot of voters are probably in the middle btw/ defunding the police and supporting the police union, or maybe some don’t trust a pro-police policy originating from white politicians.
Nobody knows who would have won a ranked choice vote; a change in system could change who puts their hat in the ring and campaign strategies. Also complicated by voting on racial lines, not policy lines. Arguably the most pro-police candidate was an African-American candidate who advocated removing handcuffs on the police and for criminals to be “hunted down like rabbits.” Would Willie Wilson won a runoff that Vallas couldn’t?
In the 2016 mayoral primary election Wilson got a plurality of the black vote and IIRC came in third which meant he did not take place in the run-off which was between Lori Lightfoot and Toni Preckwinkle. Preckwinkle did not carry a single ward.
Now Brandon Johnson is closely aligned with Preckwinkle and has become mayor-elect. I doubt the views of the electorate have changed that much in four years.
If he thinks he can solve the root of crime issues then you should also monitor employment rates, school attendance and graduation rates. Also, I dont know if such a metric exists but if not I would create it, monitor how often community sources contribute to catching criminals. Would be a good measure of how trust is improving in the community.
Steve
Yes, I was thinking along those lines this morning. I heard him on TV talking about reducing youth unemployment as a strategy for reducing crime. The part that was unclear to me was how you reduce youth unemployment without reducing the truancy rate, improving on-time graduation, establishing standards for graduation (no “social promotions”), or reducing illegal immigration.
Talking this over at dinner, think someone should commit journalism and pin him down on his version of the root causes. Then the same clever journalist/news organization should set up process metrics based upon his claims as well as end game metrics like actual crime.
Steve
That’s why I posted on the subject a while back. He’s actually been pretty clear–he seems to think that the cause of crime is unemployment. I’m still trying to figure out the jobs he’ll create for kids who won’t attend school that can’t be done cheaper by immigrants.