I found this piece by James Holmes at RealClearDefense, attempting to place a remark by Chinese President Xi into a Clausewitzian framework, thought-provoking. Here’s the remark as reported by CNN:
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on troops to “put all (their) minds and energy on preparing for war” in a visit to a military base in the southern province of Guangdong on Tuesday, according to state news agency Xinhua.
Presumably, he was addressing multiple audiences: the troops themselves, the Taiwanese, us, other potential adversaries. For the troops he was attempting to promote élan. As Mr. Holmes put it:
Xi was simply entreating the PLA Marines to do their job, not announcing that war is imminent. That’s the banal part.
As Clausewitz noted there are three dominant tendencies in a society:
- rational subordination of military endeavors to policy
- chance and creativity and
- passions like fear, rage, or spite
and three ways of winning in martial strife:
- overcome your opponent and dictate terms
- discourage your antagonist or
- convince your antagonist that the cost of victory will not be worth the price
That last is undoubtedly the message that President Xi is sending to us.
My last word on this subject consists of an observation. Our adversaries, from Admiral Yamamoto to Osama Bin Laden, have routinely miscalculated our reactions. Honestly, it isn’t just our adversaries but our allies as well. I doubt that President Xi would do a better job.
IMO If Biden is elected, Taiwan will either be militarily attacked or blockaded into surrendering within the year, because I do not see China Joe doing anything to upset his paymasters. This would incidentally give the Empire a stranglehold on the trade routes through the South China Sea including from the ASEAN nations to the US.In addition the great sucking sound of US and other nation’s manufacturing in the direction of the Han will resume and accelerate.
9/11 showed that American passions can turn on a dime. Men were rushing to join up when we didn’t even have a clear adversary on whom to take revenge .
What’s not clear to me is how two nations bristling with nuclear ICBM’s can declare war on one another. Miscalculation?
Leaders make threatening sounds for domestic and foreign audiences all the time, it’s actions that need to be watched, and China has been busy.
Actually, in 1940 it was the US that radically miscalculated Japanese reactions to our economic warfare. And while bin Laden is dead, his movement has spread from Nigeria to Indonesia.
The problem now is that we are once again conducting economic warfare against an Asia giant, this time China.. However, today the roles are reversed. It is China that towers over the US in industrial capacity, total GDP, and population. Xi is not so subtly warning us that China will not yield to economic blackmail.
Pompeo is the worst SecState in history. He (and Bolton) sabotaged Trump’s rapprochement with North Korea, vetoed Trump’s withdrawal from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, encouraged Trump to leave nuclear deal with Iran, and began trade wars with everyone. All of this is the symptom national of decay and decline.
Also realize that Xi becomes more isolated from his own intelligence services every day. His advisors will compete to please his ear, withholding displeasing truths.
In his position of absolute strength, this is his weakness. He will become suspicious of formerly trusted officers, confidants will become confidence men and this is where to place the wedge.
I doubt that the worlds largest dictatorship can lead to anything other than stagnation and eventual collapse. Which is another reason not to have them as our largest trading partner and supplier.