Glenn Reynolds notes:
INTERESTING BIT from the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS: The graphic at the right is a crop from their graph showing Kerry vs. Bush since February 1st of this year (follow the link and scroll down for the whole thing). Despite the general sense that it’s been a rough period for Bush, his lead over Kerry has grown steadily since about the time it looked as if Kerry was going to get the nomination.
Green is for Kerry. Blue for Bush. Mr. Reynolds goes on to ask “What information are the market participants taking into account that the conventional widom is missing?” How about econometric models not only predicting that Bush will win but that the economy probably just can’t get bad enough fast enough for Kerry to win.
Thnaks!