At Project Syndicate Carla Norrlöf outlines what she refers to as the “requirements of global economy and security”. Here’s a sample:
As recent years have shown, geopolitics can profoundly affect the global economy, reshaping trade, investment flows, and policies sometimes almost overnight. Aside from their devastating human toll, wars like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s campaign in Gaza often reverberate far beyond the immediate theater of conflict.
For example, Western-led sanctions on Russia, and the disruption of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, caused energy and food prices to soar, resulting in supply insecurity and inflation on a global scale. Moreover, China has deepened its economic relationship with Russia following the mass exodus of Western firms in 2022 and 2023.
concluding:
All governments will need to grapple with these tensions as they develop a new economic-security agenda. The world is quickly becoming more adversarial and fraught with risk. To maximize both security and prosperity, we will have to understand the complex interplay of forces that are creating it.
I see her article as a lament for the Pax Americana which is truly gone. We shouldn’t be too surprised. As much time has elapsed since World War II and today as did between the American Civil War and World War II.
In my view we should stop longing for a return of the Pax Americana because it isn’t coming back and turn our attentions to our own security and economic needs. For my part I think we should focus on our interests in Central and South America and ignore the Middle East. Note that at present our trade with Mexico exceeds our trade with China.
If, on the other hand, we remain committed to being a world-spanning superpower, we need to reindustrialize and do it quickly. You can’t be a world-spanning superpower while dependent on other not necessarily friendly countries for defense procurement.
