This remark from Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and quoted by Fox Business struck me as unnecessarily paranoid:
“The situation is very grave in part because … China was lying from the beginning, and they’re still lying today,” Cotton, R-Ark., said. “And also because there are so many unknowns about this virus. For example, how many people one person can infect once they have the virus?”
[…]
He also brought up the “questions” surrounding the biosafety level 4 “super laboratory” in Wuhan, the city where the virus is believed to have originated.
“This virus did not originate in the Wuhan animal market,” Cotton said. “Epidemiologists who are widely respected from China who published a study … have demonstrated that several of the original cases did not have any contact with that food market. The virus went into that food market before it came out.”
“We also know that just a few miles away from that food market is China’s only biosafety level 4 super laboratory that researches human infectious diseases. Now we don’t have evidence that this disease originated there, but because of China’s duplicity and dishonesty from the beginning we need to at least ask the question,” Cotton continued.
The one thing about Wuhan coronavirus about which we should have confidence is that it’s not a bioweapon. The characteristics of a good bioweapon include infectivity, virulence, toxicity, pathogenicity, incubation period, lethality, and stability. Nothing we actually know about it suggests it has any of the characteristics of a useful bioweapon and everything suggests a naturally existing pathogen.
Besides I think the Chinese are more competent than that.
We have enough nutty ideas floating around without spreading more.
A great quote from the movie Contagion –
Someone in homeland security asks the CDC director if the virus MEV-1 was a bioweapon, the CDC director responds, “Someone doesn’t have to weaponize the bird flu, the birds are doing thatâ€.
Our culture romanticizes nature – but nature can be terrifying.
Real terror unseen is what may be happening re this virus in N. Korea. Almost totally lacking in medical facilities. We may never know.
Right there are a lot of known unknowns. Too many in the Empire. How it really started (Thanks, Xi, for allowing the supposed birthplace market to be surgically scrubbed down), the number of current deaths, the number of cases, etc. etc. I trust any info about Wuhan flu coming out of China about as much as the economic numbers they provide, which is not at all. I say forget about how it started, create a vaccine (I believe already being done), as as soon as it proves safer than the flu start creating more on an industrial scale and distributing it worldwide gratis. The reduction in lost production and prosperity will far outweigh the cost of the R&D and manufacture.
By the way, I meant to say this on the Coronavirus post yesterday, but there is enough data outside of China that we can make a rough estimate of the scale of outbreak.
Outside of China, there has been approximately 900 or so cases and 5 deaths – or a 0.5% mortality rate.
Given China has reported 1700 deaths — you a figure of about 300000 infected. Given they have established 80% or so of infections are mild (not serious enough to hospitalize) – that gives you 60000 severe cases which roughly lines up with what the Chinese government is reporting.
I caveat that the death figures in Hubei are underreported, a lot of people died earlier that were not attributed to the virus, but I don’t think it is an order of magnitude mistake.
“Outside of China, there has been approximately 900 or so cases and 5 deaths – or a 0.5% mortality rate.”
I dont know that much about the quality of medical care throughout China. My sense is that it is very variable throughout the country. 0.5% is what it might be with quality medical care.
Steve
I do not have first hand experience with the Chinese health care system – but I agree that it varies in quality, lagging in rural areas but quite reasonable in urban centers.
The current treatment for COVID-19 – oxygen, respirators, and artificial lung is something I expect China can do.
If you look at this data point from Hong Kong’s health department showing cases by Chinese province, https://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/statistics_of_the_cases_novel_coronavirus_infection_en.pdf
Outside of Hubei, the mortality rate is 0.5% (16000 cases, 80 deaths) — which matches what we see ex-China.
It’s inside Hubei where the mortality rate is 3%. I think that is a reflection of an overwhelmed health system which is catching only very sick people and not having enough resources to provide quality care to everyone who needs it.
I am suspicious of Chinese government data; but the math is the math.