I also wanted to comment on Karl Rove’s most recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. In the op-ed Mr. Rove assesses the state of the midterm elections as they enter their final phase. Mr. Rove opens by characterizing the Democratic candidates’ overall strategy:
Democrats appear to believe it’s sufficient simply to blame President Trump for the economy and offer hazy promises to do something about housing, grocery, healthcare and gasoline prices. No need to explain what Democrats would do, how it would work, or what it would cost. Just trash Mr. Trump and chant “affordability.”
citing the rather small advantage Democrats seem to be showing in the opinion polls, and continuing with the Republicans’ overall strategy:
Still, the Republican campaign strategy doesn’t look much better. It’s good news that Mr. Trump finally announced Friday that he’ll open his record $1 billion campaign war chest. He says he’ll spend up to $500 million from his political-action committees now and keep the balance, perhaps for the 2028 election. But it’s already late and could prove too little.
This close to Election Day, advertising airtime sells at a premium. While candidates and party committees by law can buy ads at the lowest unit rate a TV station charges for any nonpolitical client, a PAC has to buy what the market will bear. If Mr. Trump’s MAGA Inc. plans to spend $10 million on the Texas Senate race across the next two weeks—as its Federal Election Commission filings indicate—Mr. Talarico can probably match it by spending $4 million to $6 million.
It all reminds me of the late Mayor Daley’s wisecrack, “No matter how it looks now someone will win the election.”
I have no idea whether the Democrats will take control of the House or the Republicans will retain it. The Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets presently favor Democratic control of the House, but the actual shift in seats they imply is comparatively modest. That would hardly be an unusual result for a midterm election.
