In his New York Times column Nikolas Kristof speculates that China may provide President Joe Biden’s biggest nightmare:
Biden needs to manage Xi and reduce the risk of war without pulling his punches: Biden should denounce cultural genocide in Xinjiang but not seek a boycott of the Beijing 2022 Olympics, and he should strengthen ties with Taiwan but not gratuitously poke Xi in the eye. We can send Army Green Berets to train with Taiwan armed forces without releasing video of the training, as the Trump administration did. We can also work with China to reduce the risk of accidents and escalation.
while China permahawk Gordon Chang, who’s been predicting the imminent collapse of China for the last 20 years, in a piece at the Gatestone Institute International Police Council laments that Biden is giving Xi everything he wants:
China’s challenge to America is comprehensive, on every front. So far, Biden has taken steps that certainly encourage Beijing. His rejoining the Paris Agreement, his cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, and his repeal of the ban on Chinese equipment in the American electrical grid, among others, favor, directly or indirectly, Beijing. Also of great concern is the failure of Commerce Secretary nominee Gina Raimondo to confirm that Huawei Technologies will remain on the department’s Entity List.
Analysts say Beijing is testing Biden. Yes, but so far the Chinese do not need to lift a finger. The new president is giving them what they want, and they are not even having to ask.
I have several points to make. First, China is only a “nightmare” for the United States to the degree that we allow it to be. We chose to hollow out our industrial capacity. China didn’t force it on us. We chose to sell Treasuries to China. China didn’t force us to do it.
And I honestly don’t see how President Biden will accomplish most of the goals he’s established for his administration without changing our behavior and without running counter to China. Whether it’s re-invigorating our economy, making it more equitable, countering global warming, re-engaging with our allies, or standing up for human rights, it can’t be done without criticizing China and taking actions that thwart the Chinese authorities’ plans. His “climate czar”, John Kerry, has already acknowledged that even if the U. S. cut its carbon emissions to zero, it still would have little effect on global warming. The reason for that is China and its actions in Asia and Africa.
But I don’t think that China will be Biden’s biggest challenge. I think his own caucus will be. Especially when its left wing figures out that the way to get President Biden to move farther to the left is to move farther to the left themselves.
Finally, I agree with Mr. Chang to the extent that I believe there’s a genuine risk of Chinese collapse for many of the reasons that he’s mentioned plus others that I’ve analyzed. Our challenge is to ensure that we aren’t taken down with it.
Lets see. Giving them what they want consists of not wanting to call Covid the China virus and we are rejoining WHO. A right wing writer is unhappy that were are rejoining WHO. Why am I not surprised? Once again, WHO does not have an intelligence arm. The US does. WHO is limited to the access given it by a host/member country. Could WHO have been better? Sure, but so could have almost everyone else’s response. It was a new virus that no one had seen before. Easy to know what you should have done after the fact.
Steve
Again, I believe Xi is confident AFA his long term goals of regional dominance. A military gamble is generally taken out of weakness.
He feels strong at this point. Yes he is testing Biden, or more correctly, sending a message. He anticipates Biden’s response. I see no tipping point here.
Apparently, Chang (whom I despise, along with Gen. Keane) doesn’t read newspapers. The US is the only country in the world that sees China as a threat. Fourteen East Asian countries, including five US allies, signed RCEP, a free trade treaty with China. The EU, including all of NATO except UK and Norway, signed CAI with China, which liberalizes mutual investment rules.
So, every one of our military allies except Canada, UK and Norway now have much closer economic ties with China than they did last fall. So much for decoupling.
And the key feature of all these treaties is that US and India (a failed state) are excluded.
As to Chinese collapse, virtually impossible. If you want to see a failing, if not failed state, look at the destruction around you. Portland is now approaching a year of open insurrection, with armed and armored militias in control of much of downtown Portland. A dozen or more American cities have burnt out cores. The Democrat Party is talking about expelling Republicans from Congress and imprisoning Trump supporters. The Capitol is ringed with a permanent, ain’t-never-going-away wall/fence, and what might be a permanent military occupation. Washington and New York just openly crushed some independent investors in order to protect its 0.1%.
PS. Congratulations on the new job. Wish you luck in it. Now, if the raise was big enough look around for a rural refuge. I hear the Upper Peninsula is nice, but you’re welcome in north-central rural Ohio.
Have you checked out the Indian, Japanese, Taiwanese, and Philippine news? Entering into a trade agreement is not synonymous with not seeing China as a threat.