This morning the editors of the Wall Street Journal provide their analysis of the main reason Mr. Trump lost the 2020 presidential election. He faced a very formidable opponent: himself. They explain:
As important is why he lost, and for that look no further than Mr. Trump’s own pollster, Tony Fabrizio. His firm’s post-election analysis was first reported by Politico, but it’s worth resurfacing for Republicans to ponder.
Mr. Fabrizio looked at data from exit polls and AP’s VoteCast in 10 highly competitive states that Mr. Trump won in 2016. Mr. Trump lost five of them in 2020—Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—while winning Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio andTexas a second time.
One stunning conclusion: Mr. Trump lost even though the electorate was more Republican in 2020 than in 2016. Mr. Fabrizio reports that Mr. Trump lost “largely due to a massive swing†among independents and erosion among Republicans. This helps explain how the GOP gained a dozen seats in the House even as Mr. Trump became the first President to lose re-election since George H.W. Bush.
Much of this erosion in support was based on dislike for Mr. Trump personally and the way he handled the Presidency. “While a majority of voters said they didn’t find either Presidential candidate honest or trustworthy, Biden held a double-digit advantage over POTUS,†especially in the five states that flipped to Mr. Biden in 2020, says the Fabrizio analysis.
concluding:
We rehearse all this not to rub an open political wound. The point is to remember, as time passes and Mr. Trump blames everyone else for his defeat, that 2020 was a winnable race. Mr. Trump had many accomplishments to tout, and voters recognized them. But Mr. Biden’s consistent campaign message of a return to a calmer, more unifying politics resonated with millions of voters who had tired of the constant Trump turmoil.
Mr. Trump didn’t lose to Joe Biden. He lost to himself.
IMO Democrats should consider this possibility. Perhaps it might temper their rush to implement measures which are as highly divisive as some of the bills that have come up in the House lately.
This needed explanation?
Steve
Yeah, all that seemed pretty obvious, especially considering how down-ballot Republicans out-performed Trump.
I think Democrats should be more concerned about what’s happening at the state level. Democrats made some significant inroads in the suburbs that they need to hold onto. I think school openings and teachers unions ignoring the science are a much greater threat to Democratic prospects than House bills that will never become law. Especially once it becomes clear just how much damage school closings have done to kids, especially those from less fortunate families. This has been under-reported but can’t be diminished forever. If that really blows up, Democrats could lose big in the mid-terms.
It will be attributed to “systemic racism”—today’s “Get Out of Jail Free” card.
Setting aside the obvious fraud…………….this is the point I made to a buddy of mine. Trump was his own worst enemy and could have obviated the fraud by just controlling his ego and NYC attitude. And he didn’t even need to do it all 4 years. Throttling back starting 18 months before the election would have done it. He already had the faithful.
Those of us used to a no-holds-barred environment can look past the noise at the substance. Others have a need to be nice, even as they are lead to slaughter like farm animals.
teachers unions:
As Rush said in his last live broadcast, the Democratic party ignores blue collar workers at their peril.
Public sector union members are not blue collar. They are increasingly seen as riding on the backs of the blue collar workers and part of the elite.
The benefits they receive would be a dream for Doordash or Uber drivers, who do not have workman’s compensation coverage, must pay for overhead such as smartphone and vehicle, and pay the employee’s share plus the employer’s share of SSI and Medicare taxes.
Maybe I didn’t read the article carefully, but if they mentioned the near half a million people who died from covid, I didn’t see it.
And maybe that had some effect on the election.
“Those of us used to a no-holds-barred environment can look past the noise at the substance.”
Those of us who have worked in a no-holds barred environment expect accountability and results. We got the same tax cuts and judges we would have gotten from any generic Republican, an economy like the prior 16 years, at the price of increased debt and those jobs were guaranteed would return did not come back. Not on e deal made with Democrats. No big problems addressed. And, as noted above, there were major failures in the Covid approach, especially where Trump was personally involved.
Steve