The editors of the Washington Post are alarmed about the return of measles to the United States:
This year is not yet one-third over, yet measles cases in the United States are on track to be the worst since a massive outbreak in 2019. At the same time, anti-vaccine activists are recklessly sowing doubts and encouraging vaccine hesitancy. Parents who leave their children unvaccinated are risking not only their health but also the well-being of those around them.
[…]
According to the World Health Organization, in 2022, 37 countries experienced large or disruptive measles outbreaks compared with 22 countries in 2021. In the United States, there have been seven outbreaks so far this year, with 121 cases in 18 jurisdictions. Most are children. Many of the outbreaks in the United States appear to have been triggered by international travel or contact with a traveler. Disturbingly, 82 percent of those infected were unvaccinated or their status unknown.
As the passage quoted above makes clear they lay the blame for the outbreaks solidly on those avoiding vaccinating their kids and the “anti-vaccine activists” sowing doubts.
While I don’t disagree with that I suspect there are other factors as well. Among those are the degree to which the public health bureaucracy has undermined itself. It only takes one lie to undermine confidence and during COVID the public health bureaucracy lied to us at least once. Furthermore they oversold the effectiveness of vaccinations, partly out of ignorance, partly out of good intentions.
Additionally, I don’t believe that most Americans understand that measles hasn’t been wiped out (like smallpox) but that materially universal vaccination against it prevents it from spreading. Measles can’t be wiped out until it’s wiped out everywhere and that appears very unlikely at present.
Finally, the strategy for dealing with anti-vaccine activists’ “sowing doubts” is through reasoned discourse and evidence rather than censorship. Censorship can come right back at you.
When I was 5-8 I contracted practically all of what used to be called “childhood diseases”. Measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox, and others I can’t even recall. There was no choice. I do not know why people choose that for their children.
If vaccines are effective, the spread should be through the unvaccinated, and I do not understand how that is my problem. The sickly should not leave the house.
The anti-vaxxer problem will resolve itself. They will either die or obtain natural immunity.
In the long run, we’ll all die, to paraphrase Keynes.
I looked on the CDC website to find there are currently 121 cases of measles in the US. That is apparently enough to be on track to be a “massive” outbreak like 2019, which has a total of 1,274 cases. Looking back in history, in 1990 we had almost 28k cases with a population of 250 million.
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
Here we have a couple hundred cases among a population of 330 million. I think the attribution of such a small number to anti-vaccine activists is, at best, a stretch. And from the map on the CDC website, the majority of the cases this year are in Chicago, a known epicenter of the anti-vax conspiracy.
Sorry for the sarcasm, but all of this looks like not that big of a deal to me.
Here’s the Chicago outbreak page, which has locations with known exposures –
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/cdph/supp_info/infectious/get-the-facts–measles.html#dashboard
“While I don’t disagree with that I suspect there are other factors as well. Among those are the degree to which the public health bureaucracy has undermined itself. It only takes one lie to undermine confidence and during COVID the public health bureaucracy lied to us at least once. Furthermore they oversold the effectiveness of vaccinations, partly out of ignorance, partly out of good intentions.”
From the first sentence I was preparing my response. Then you said it. I would go further. Not just effectiveness, but harm. And not just ignorance, but by design
This is how institutions die.
Anti faxers are nut jobs. But Covid hysteria and heavy handed Covid policy enforcers, and media, gave them voice. And so on.
Aas long as such hysteria is viewed as legitimate, and a useful political tool, this will continue.
We currently have nut cases blocking bridges and airports in SF, Chicago and NY. Throw them in jail, make them post bail. Then try them. You will get results. If you spew “first amendment” you are a dope and encourage truly juvenile and ineffective, although costly, behavior.
How many cases are due to the influx of illegal immigrants?
Is there any conceivable way to tell?
TastyBits: If vaccines are effective, the spread should be through the unvaccinated, and I do not understand how that is my problem. The sickly should not leave the house.
No vaccine offers 100% immunity. In addition, some people are immune compromised and vaccination is much less effective or can’t take the vaccine. Newborns are also susceptible to measles. If you have a family member who is immune compromised, then you might understand why universal vaccination is so important. Or you could use empathy.
The CDC was actually accurate the very large majority of the time. The vaccine was just as effective as claimed against the early variants against which is was tested. The virus changed. Even then the vaccines remained effective at preventing serious illness, though becoming less effective against later variants, which were less toxic.
“Among those are the degree to which the public health bureaucracy has undermined itself.”
They lied about masks not being effective, which to be fair was well intended. I would not that POTUS claimed HCQ, Ivermectin and bleach work while they dont. He also claimed it was under control and would not spread further after the first couple of weeks. Of course this means you have to actually read what CDC said and not what was written in the popular press or in the pre-release journals.
At any rate, this is really just an excuse to believe what you want anyway and enforce your tribal affiliations. Despite POTUS making false claims and the CDC lying on that one issue, most people got vaccinated anyway, even in the GOP. It’s the radicals, the true MAGATs in the party that used that stuff to justify what they wanted to do.
To date, as best I can determine, all outbreaks have had a foreign origin, mostly Africa and the ME and mostly returning US travelers. They have been perpetuated in communities that have low vax rates like the Orthodox Jewish or low vax rates for political reasons. Vaccination rates in most places are good but we know all vaccines have a failure rate so we rely upon herd immunity effects. There is also a population of immunocompromised people who either cant be vaccinated or their earlier vax does not work.
Piercello- They trace every outbreak. IIRC there have been an outbreak or two tied to refugees in the past and there was a recent one in Chicago.
Steve
What is it that they say about good intentions? It was a lie. One lie can flush decades of trust down the drain.
Piercello:
I think that migrants are more likely to contract measles circulating asymptomatically in the community than they are to spread measles to the community. That has generally been the case in Chicago at any rate.
Masks had little utility at first because the virus wasn’t prevalent. After the virus became prevalent, masks became necessary.
@Zachriel
If you are immune compromised, you should not leave the house, or you should wear a protective suit. There are a lot of pathogens in the world.
I have problems, and except for medical appointments, I rarely leave the house.
@Zachriel
To be clear, I am not opposed to requiring vaccines for schools or other institutions, and if a business wants to require them, I have no problem. The world does not need to cater to anti-vaxxers, either.
Because humans are mostly terrible at judging benefits vs risk.
My understanding is most parents quickly wise up if misfortune hits and they get personal experience with these preventable diseases….
Of course, there probably are a lot of parents who banked on other parents vaccinating their kids, creating herd immunity, and making their decision to not vaccinate as a benefit of avoiding vaccine injury and avoiding the risk of infection
I doubt the utility of masks against a virus.
But because I have COPD, I watch air quality and wear them for smoke which affects me fairly severely.
“. One lie can flush decades of trust down the drain.”
It can, but people have agency. The large majority of people still got vaccinated. The MAGA extremists disproportionately did not get vaccinated. They no doubt added this to their list of reasons but they would have gotten there anyway. Before I retired i often asked people why they didnt get vaccinated. I was not supposed to do that since it’s politically incorrect and might hurt their fee fees but I was retiring anyway. I dont recall anyone ever saying they didnt get vaccinated because Fauci lied about masks. TBH I dont even recall it showing up on any lists as it’s mostly something only political junkiess will know.
A lot of immunocompromised people do mostly stay home, but they do need to out sometime. However, let’s look at what is really happening. In Florida when kids actually had measles he told the parents it was OK for them to decide whether or not to keep them at home. For fear of offending the anti-vaxxers he didnt tell them to keep the kids home for 21 days as is the normal recommendation. The kids had one of the most contagious diseases we know but the parents had no responsibility to have them avoid spreading the disease.
Steve
Trust doesn’t work the way you’re describing, steve.
Did anyone say they didn’t get vaccinated because they didn’t trust the vaccines? I suspect that was true of most who did not get vaccinated whether they were “MAGA extremists” or not.
When you erode trust you erode it generally. People don’t disbelieve you on one issue and then trust you on everything else. It just doesn’t work that way.
@steve
People allergic to bees need to leave the house. Should we begin a bee eradication program. Since every other child has a peanut allergy, we should outlaw peanut butter. Strobe lights can trigger migraines. I guess those are on the list as well.
Of course, I expect you to lecture me on why these are different.
My wife is anti-vaccine. It is a health food thing. She is slightly pro-Trump, but it began over thirty years ago in a health food store. She is sympathetic to many MAGA positions, but she could be persuaded to liberal positions, just not by progressives.
Anti-vaxxers are not just MAGA people. Go to your local health food store (not GNC) and hang out for a few hours. It is bizarre. There are Evangelicals, hippies, animal lovers, and assorted freaks. In the store, they all get along, and most of them are anti-vaxxers.
She never got the COVID vaccine, but I did. She got COVID, and a day latter, I got it. We had the same symptoms and intensity, and it lasted the same amount of time.
My entire family has had COVID at least once. My brother-in-law was hospitalized, but he is grossly overweight. He got better, but his mother died. The first was before a vaccine existed.
The Black Plague and Spanish Flu are laughing at calling COVID a pandemic.
Since masks are so effective, why is there no recommendation to use them to prevent allergies? Why is there a requirement for painters, etc. to wear respirators? Let me help – one works, and one doesn’t.
Again, I expect a lecture.
While I am at it, hospital bed shortages is a scam. Hospitals have enough beds, but they only hire enough nurses to staff the minimal amount. When they need more beds, they hire temp nurses. Like all the greedy CEO’s, ER Doctors are hoarding their stash.
Once more, I expect a lecture.
I do not know anything about schools or the military, today. When I was in school and the Marine Corps, vaccines were mandatory. I had chickenpox and measles or mumps (possibly all), and it was miserable. I cannot imagine intentionally sending a child to school with any of them.
I quickly got to “trust but verify” mode with the CDC. I didn’t take what they said on faith. This was almost entirely about NPI’s.
Now, for the vaccines, I’m a pro-vaccine person. My vaccine list is about two typed pages long. I’ve had almost every one there is. But I can see how people who saw all the reasons not to trust the CDC on NPI’s would transfer that distrust onto other recommendations.
You can avoid bees, peanut butter and strobe lights. You cant tell who has been vaccinated and not been vaccinated. If people dont want to get vaccinated but they stay home or only go out in communities where others are not vaccinated that could in theory work.
Cant think of a health reason for most people to avoid most vaccinations.
Masks for allergies dont make much sense. Unlike for painting, you would need to wear them for 24 hours and they wouldn’t stop eye symptoms, the worst part for many of us. Easier to just take meds.
Not sure how you are defining bed shortages. As most of us define it we mean there are no more physical beds available for use. In some systems it is occasionally due to a lack of staff but that is not the rule. So in most cases even if we had twice as many nurses we still wouldn’t have a place to put the patients, especially ICU beds as we saw during peak covid. (All hospital beds include the needed architecture to support care at that site including oxygen, suction outlets and needed monitors. You need more of those in an ICU setting.)
Hospitals could build and maintain empty hospital rooms that rarely get used. They could hire nurses and other staff who just sit around until needed, though actually that wont work. People need to work to maintain skills. So you could hire a bunch of people and pay them full time pay but have them work only half time to maintain skills. That way we could double staff numbers. How would you pay for that?
“I quickly got to “trust but verify” ”
I thought they were wrong about a few things, mostly being too slow to note changes so we altered our care before they made official recommendations. However, I often found that what people were disagreeing with were not official CDC recommendations but rather individual state policies since health care is largely managed at the state level.
Dave- A lot said they didnt trust them because they were done too fast or that they thought the drug companies hid data. There were also a lot fo conspiracy reasons given. Still, as I noted most people got vaccinated even though Fauci lied that one time. Most people did exactly what you said they wouldn’t do. Then weigh that one lie by Fauci vs all of the lies by the people opposing the vaccines. They really didnt have 5G chips in them. They dont magnetize you. They dont kill more people than covid has killed. They dont keep you from getting pregnant. Note that almost all of the people the vaccine was delayed to hurt Trump’s re-election effort switched to complaining the vaccine was rushed. All of the lies about HCQ working. Ivermectin. Etc.
However, as I said, few people really knew about what Fauci said but if they were concerned about lying then they should have been concern about all lying which should have led them to asking their own physician or if they had the skills to read original medical literature.
Steve
You might note that polio and tuberculosis are on the rise, too. These are likely immigrant-related.
I’m waiting for some government research laboratory to lose control of its smallpox inventory. Both the US and the old Soviet Union had samples in storage, just in case.
The data changed. The disease wasn’t as prevalent. They hadn’t learned just how contagious the virus was. And they weren’t aware of the degree of asymptomatic spread. The data changed, so the guidance changed.
TastyBits: People allergic to bees need to leave the house.
If people exhaled bees, and the bees spread exponentially . . . Your analogy is, uh, faulty. Infection can spread exponentially. It’s a matter of public health, and any society has the right to control the spread of infectious disease.
In particular, once measles population immunity level drops below 95% or so, measles can run through a community. Keep in mind that even vaccinated people can become infected. (The measles vaccine is about 95% effective.) Contrariwise, immune-compromised people are safe from measles to go about in public when the measles population immunity is sufficient to prevent an outbreak.
Grey Shambler: I doubt the utility of masks against a virus.
Masks reduce the amount of droplets expelled when someone coughs. In addition, masks reduce the amount of aerosols emitted by someone who may be infected. In crowded conditions, masks are ineffective as the air will still become saturated with aerosols. In well-ventilated conditions, masks are not necessary as long as people keep a few feet apart. However, masks are effective in many indoor conditions people find themselves, such as shops and stores. See Cheng et al., Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, Science 2021.