The blogosphere if full of people linking to the photos of the recent Iranian missile tests, now pretty generally accepted to have been edited using Photoshop or some other image editing program to show more missiles than were actually launched. Arms Control Wonk has a sample with a follow-up post here. There’s been considerably less analysis of why the Iranians would have done such a thing than chortling over the apparent fact that they did. In the second cited post Arms Control Wonk points favorably to Errol Morris’s commentary in the New York Times:
The government of Iran could not have created a more self-serving controversy. It has focused our attention on Iranian military might more than ever. What will we remember — the digital manipulation of this photograph or the missiles streaking into the sky with their contrails of smoke? Will we ask about essential details — the range or the payload of these weapons? All we are left with is a threat in visual form.
• Deterrence. The Iranians want us to believe whatever threat they pose is larger than it actually is.
• Domestic consumption. The Iranian leadership wants the Iranian people to believe that Iran’s military strength is greater than it actually is. An angry response from us is a plus since it enables them to stand up boldly against the world’s only superpower.
• Provocation. The Iranian leadership wants us (or Israel) to attack them because they think they have the stronger hand.
• Asymmetrical warfare. The Iranian leadership wants to provoke a disproportionate response to draw support to their side.
• 4GW warfare. The Iranians want to discredit our leadership by provoking an excessive rhetorical response.
• The Alex Forrest Syndrome. They will not be ignored!
I’m open to suggestions. Why did the Iranians Photoshop their own missile pictures?
Upon redacting the image, Agence France-Presse claimed that the fourth missile failed to launch, and that this Photoshopping was designed to cover up that fact.
An article that I read quoted an analyst at the “International Institute for Strategic Studies” as also claiming that the digital altering was designed to cover for a failed launch.
Since these were all the Shahab 3 variety of missiles (i.e. there was nothing materially “special” about the 4th missile), the only logical conclusion I can draw is that the Iranians knew we were watching and wanted us to think that our instruments could not detect this 4th missile, thereby distracting, or fooling our intelligence into thinking Iran was in a stronger technological position that it is, perhaps looking down the road for bargaining positions in future potential negotiations with Europe (or a new American adminstration, for that matter).
Or, maybe a low-level tech guy did it on a dare.
It had nothing to do with the missiles per se. The Iranians were demonstrating that they have Photoshop technology. This was all an oblique way of threatening the lifeblood of America: our celebrities.
I would not be at all surprised if the Iranians are planning a covert Photoshop attack on the Brangelina twins. They are that evil.
I absolutely think that’s as likely an explanation as any of the others, michael.
The underlings promised their superiors a four-missile launch, so the leadership was shown a four-missile launch. Failure is not an option.
I’m not even sure they actually launched anything, and that the photos and video aren’t just different angles from the 2006 “demonstrations.”
I find it interesting that no one is considering that the Iranians may want to deceive the West by deliberately allowing themselves to be caught in a clumsy fraud..thus ‘proving’ to gullible Westerners that Iran is not a significant threat and buying them more time to perfect their nuclear arsenal.
In fact that’s what all of the faux negotiations have been about..buying time.
In dealing with Iran,it’s useful to remember that this is the country where chess was invented.
The longer we continue to play this game with them, the more it will eventually cost us in blood and treasure..mark my words.