I agree with Victor Joecks’s assessment of the campaign for the Democratic nomination for president, published in the Las Vegas Review-Journal:
Even though the Iowa caucus isn’t for another month, I feel confident that Joe Biden will be the Democrat presidential nominee. Here’s why.
It starts with the polls. Biden has been dominant. Since Real Clear Politics started its polling average in December 2018, Biden has led for all but one day. Sen. Elizabeth Warren eclipsed him by 0.2 percentage points on Oct. 2. She now trails him by 13 percent and is in third place, also trailing Sen. Bernie Sanders.
This isn’t how many political pundits expected last year to go. They chalked up Biden’s pre-announcement lead to his high name ID. He was supposed to gaffe his way into an early exit. He wasn’t progressive enough for the liberal wing of the party either.
What makes Biden’s durability look sustainable is that he hasn’t been a great candidate. Far from it. His debates have been cringeworthy.
He goes on to catalogue a number of Biden’s gaffes. We should get used to them. We’ll hear a lot more between now and November. I also think it’s quite possible that the early primaries could be run by several different candidates.
Mr. Joecks concludes:
There’s a reason political pundits usually make predictions as late in the game as possible. A few days can be a lifetime in politics. Any number of things could radically alter the race — Michelle Obama or Oprah would win if either jumped in. Biden could have a medical issue. Warren could join Sanders on a left-wing unity ticket.
All that said, I believe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and a serious threat to President Donald Trump.
The only thing I can add is that the political landscape is littered with the dead or dying ambitions of people who underestimated Donald Trump. There were many lessons to be learned from the 2016 election but the most important is that just because you tell a pollster you disapprove of Donald Trump doesn’t mean you won’t vote for him.
Biden, Michelle, Oprah, all surrogates for Obama’s third term. I don’t see the appeal, but it’s there, evidenced by the media excitement over his being spotted shirtless in Hawaii.