In his column in the New York Times Neil Irwin raises an interesting question: how can the unemployment rate be so high while employers are unable to find people to hire?
There are two distinct, and completely opposite, ways of looking at the American job market.
One would be to consult the data tables produced every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which suggest a plentiful supply of would-be workers. The unemployment rate is 6 percent, representing 9.7 million Americans who say they are actively looking for work.
Alternately, you could search for news articles mentioning “labor shortage.†You will find dozens in which businesses, especially in the restaurant and other service industries, say they face a potentially catastrophic inability to hire. The anecdotes come from the biggest metropolitan areas and from small towns, as well as from tourist destinations of all varieties.
The explanations he explores are:
- Benefits are too generous
- People are worried about getting sick
- They’re still needed at home
- They’re not being offered enough money
- They’re reconsidering earlier career decisions
I suspect that all of those are true to some extent but I’d like to offer another he doesn’t mention. It’s something I’ve been aware of for 50 years. The jobs that employers advertise don’t always exist. There are many reasons for that including they’re reality checking their present pay scales, they’re testing the pool of hirees to see who’s out there, or they’re trying to make a case for hiring an H1-B worker. In tech jobs it’s not uncommon to list jobs with ridiculously specific lists of requirements. One of the most notorious was the ad in 1983 for an experienced IBM PC programmer.
I’m not sure how you’d go about testing my explanation empirically.
Update
Here are some more explanations. Two career families make it hard to relocate for jobs. And members of racial and ethnic minorities may be less predisposed to relocate for work. It means leaving their support systems behind and they may not be able to re-establish them in the new location.
Needed at home is a big one.
Daycare openings are way down because of COVID restrictions and provider concerns.
For the same reasons prices are way up.
Many mothers would love to get back to work and I think someone will propose a national daycare system run by unionized professionals to alleviate the crisis.
They shouldn’t, but they will.
Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan includes funding for daycare.
Military families are a kind of extreme example of what two-income families face. A military spouse’s career has to be the second priority and moving every 3-4 years is generally not good for a career. Then add kids or elders to mix and working doesn’t make much financial sense in a lot of cases.
I mentioned here many years ago that when our kids were little I’d have to make a minimum of $20k a year to break even on all the various employment expenses, the biggest being childcare. Many people can’t do that unless they are in a high-demand field with jobs everywhere that is easily transferable. For most of the military people I know, spouses in health care did pretty well.
Here in Colorado currently, the most in-demand jobs are registered nurses, software developers, sales, truck drivers, in that order.
https://coloradosun.com/2021/04/17/top-jobs-occupations-hiring-colorado/