Who Wins in a Long War?

In a piece at Foreign Affairs Ivo H. Daalder and James Goldgeier present their plan for a “long war” between Russia and Ukraine. Here’s the meat of it:

There is a limit to what Washington and its allies can and will provide in terms of weapons and military assistance. Part of that limit is the reality that even the United States is running out of excess capabilities to provide to Ukraine. Take artillery shells. In the past year, Ukraine fired as many of them in a week as the United States can produce in a month. Similar shortfalls exist for more advanced weapons. Germany sent its modern IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine in October, but it has struggled to supply the quantity of surface-to-air missiles necessary for Ukraine to maintain an effective defense. Given the extensive military aid it has already provided and dwindling available supplies, the West is likely to ship a significantly smaller amount of weaponry to Ukraine over the next six months than it did over the last six months.

In addition to supply constraints, Washington and its allies have also been held back in furnishing some sophisticated weapons to Ukraine because of the extensive training that would be required and the risk that such weapons could fall into Russian hands if used in the war theater. Combat aircraft, from F-16s to newer-generation models, fall into the first category. In the second are sophisticated drones such as the Gray Eagle, which, if they were captured by Russian forces, would give Russia crucial insights into U.S. military capabilities and technology.

Then there is the danger of escalation. Moscow has repeatedly warned Washington not to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, including the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of 300 kilometers (186 miles) and could strike deep into Russian territory. U.S. President Joe Biden has consistently rejected calls to send these highly capable missiles to Ukraine, arguing that doing so would divide NATO and risk setting off a direct military confrontation with Russia, even a third world war. It is easy to dismiss these fears, as many seasoned observers do. But it is crucially important that the United States take the risks of escalation seriously and continually weigh the risks of not doing enough to help Ukraine against the consequences of doing too much, including the possibility that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons. The undeniable reality is that there is an inherent limit to how much Ukrainian and American interests overlap in responding to Russia’s aggression.

with this their conclusion:

To develop an effective approach to dealing with a prolonged war, the West must also keep providing sufficient support to Ukraine to defend the territory it now controls—and to liberate more wherever possible. As Ukraine over time pursues its economic future in the European Union, the United States and NATO countries need to offer a security commitment to ensure that Ukraine has the weaponry it needs to defend itself against Russia over the long term, just as the United States has done for Israel for decades. Washington should also explore with its allies the possibility of augmenting Ukraine’s promised EU membership with eventual membership in NATO itself.

Meanwhile, Western leaders need to get back to the business of containing the Russian threat. That will require maintaining all the financial, trade, and economic sanctions they have put in place since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. It also means continuing their efforts to end dependence on Russian energy exports. And it entails doing everything possible to prevent Russian access to technologies necessary to sustain its economy, including in the defense sector.

An effective long-term containment policy will require the continued political isolation of Russia. Moscow’s exclusion from sporting and cultural events helps to ensure that isolation, as do votes in the UN General Assembly that demonstrate the lack of support for its illegal war against Ukraine. But a more concerted Western effort is necessary to demonstrate to the countries in the global South that alignment with Moscow—or nonalignment itself—ultimately erodes the foundations of peace and security on which the international order is based. That does not mean that all countries need to adopt the economic strategy of the West; it does mean convincing them that Russia is at fault and that its behavior is the fundamental cause of their economic plight. As part of that effort, Washington and its Western partners can do much more to address the food, energy, and economic crises that have emerged in the wake of Russia’s unprovoked actions—starting by relieving debts and providing food aid to countries most in need.

Finally, containment of Russia will require the West to maintain a strong deterrence posture against not just military threats but threats to its own institutions and societies as well. This means that Europe will have to increase its defense spending more than it already has in response to Russian aggression since 2014. The United States will need to stay engaged in Europe even as it devotes more and more effort to the China challenge in the Indo-Pacific. In addition, NATO and EU countries need to bolster their individual and joint efforts to thwart Russian interference in their elections and respond forcefully to economic intimidation, political interference, and other forms of hybrid warfare. Although parts of Russia’s military have been decimated, Moscow remains a significant threat to the West.

with the addition of a “communications channel”, something for which I see no prospect.

What the authors don’t seem to realize are:

1. Economically, the Ukrainians are already on their backs. It’s more building from scratch than rebuilding.
2. Germany undoubtedly understands that any money thrown at Ukraine for economic development will be wasted. Uncle Sugar will bear the costs while the Germans (not to mention the Egyptians) reap the benefits.
3. If this were a war between equals it might progress as they suggest. But it isn’t and the greatest likelihood is that the “long war” they plan will end with a collapse in organized resistance from Ukraine. They will continue to resist the Russians but it will be small scale and not organized. Furthermore in all likelihood the Ukrainians will hate us just as much as they do the Russians. After all when the Ukrainians lose it will be our fault, won’t it?

In answer to my question in the title, there won’t be many winners in a “long war”. Some arms dealers in the U. S., a few highly placed U. S. government officials, and that’s pretty much it.