In a piece at Science Meredith Wackman makes two good points. First, there’s actually a financial incentive not to declare that the COVID-19 pandemic is over:
Moderna has pledged not to enforce patents on its messenger RNA vaccine until the pandemic ends, although a company spokesperson declined to say this week how it will identify that moment. Pfizer has not made a similar vaccine pledge, but it and Merck have agreed to allow generic drugmakers to make their drugs targeting SARS-CoV-2 until WHO declares the PHEIC is over. Dozens of companies have now signed up to make Merck’s molnupiravir and Pfizer’s Paxlovid for a long list of mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries.
Ending the PHEIC will also impact major pandemic-related programs such as the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility and its parent, the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator—cooperative global networks that aim to acquire and distribute affordable drugs, diagnostics, and vaccines. “The emergency operations of COVAX and ACT-A will go away—it’s hard to keep that up,†says Seth Berkley, CEO of GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance, which is integrally involved with both efforts. “The hope is that the core innovations—the ways of working all of that—will be kept warm†for the future.
If we were to follow the WHO’s published criteria for a pandemic strictly, the pandemic is over. But the definition is actually a bit fuzzy:
But Osterholm is making no predictions. “If there was ever a time for humility among scientists and policymakers with this virus, it’s now,†he says. “We are in totally uncharted territory from the perspective of understanding what a pandemic is, how it starts, how it unfolds, and how it ends.â€
To my layman’s eye here in Illinois the pandemic is actually over and COVID-19 is now endemic, like flu. There’s also an argument that has been true for some time. One thing I notice is that there appears to be a correlation between increases in the number of cases reported and the outside temperature being very hot or very cold. If that bears out, Illinois should have at least a minor uptick in cases starting in a week to ten days.
Between so many people vaccinated and so many people having had covid (Omicron and variant effect) people can still get infected but are unlikely mohave bad disease. The unvaccinated still die at about 4-5 times the rate of vaccinated.
Steve