I wanted to bring this post by Joann Muller at Axios to your attention. It appears that sales of electric vehicles have hit a bump:
The growing mismatch between EV supply and demand is a sign that even though consumers are showing more interest in EVs, they’re still wary about purchasing one because of price or charging concerns.
It’s a “Field of Dreams” moment for automakers making big bets on electrification — they’ve built the cars, and now they’re waiting for buyers to come, says Jonathan Gregory, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive.
However:
Hybrid vehicles have much lower inventory levels, supporting Toyota’s argument that consumers want a stepping stone to fully electric cars.
I suspect that when gas prices are skyrocketing people start thinking about EVs but when gas prices are stable or falling not so much. At that point other factors loom larger.
Speaking only for myself I do not find myself at all tempted to purchase an EV but I am considering a Toyota hybrid or maybe a PHEV for my next car.
We were bound to hit a wall since charging isn’t close to being solved. They just arent viable for lots of people. Even PHEVs arent much of an option for people in row homes.
Steve
Good point. Even if the price point declines, that isn’t enough. They will continue to be niche vehicles for the foreseeable future.
BTW, the batteries on Toyota hybrids are lasting much longer than was claimed on posts here a few years ago.
Steve
I think it depends on where you are. I suspect that EVs are more practical in California than they are in Minnesota.
niche vehicles:
Unless they are mandated.
Look, I’m not in love with ICE vehicles, they’re expensive and expensive to maintain.
I honestly expect electric vehicles to be even more so.
A big reason; there are form factors where EV’s don’t exist yet.
The most obvious ones are 3 row mid-size/full-size SUV’s and minivans. That’s a popular part of the market (Kia Telluride, Toyota Grand Highlander, Ford Explorer, etc).
And current EV’s are not marketed for people who are pragmatic minded; prioritize costs, reliability and practicality. They are marketed more for buyers who prioritize technology, performance, or luxury.
Curious.
Did you mean the Rich?
“Did you mean the Rich?” — In a way, the rich are a subset of the group EV’s were and are targeting.
EV manufacturers were given lemons, so they made lemonade. EV’s started as experimental / niche products which could only appeal to consumers where price or value is a secondary consideration.
That’s not only the rich; car enthusiasts who desire the performance characteristics of EV’s or who want to try new technology also fit the bill.
Its also not to say EV’s will stay in that niche. Western carmakers are focusing on the luxury, performance and enthusiasts market, but Chinese car makers are focusing EV’s on the mass market.
Average price of a new car in the US is now $48,000. There. are about a dozen, IIRC, EVs below that cost including a Tesla. American carmakers have concentrated on larger, higher profit margins cars for quite a while, but Chey does have the Bolt.
Reliability is hard to judge. The Kia TVs are reporting incredibly low problem rates and there are reasons to expect TVs to need fewer repairs. However, the market is heavily influenced by Tesla being so prominent and they were notorious for poor quality control.
The Japanese took over our small car market when Detroit ignored it. Have to wonder if China won’t do the same thing. (China has several cities with a population over 10 million so they worry about congestion. They also have pollution problems. They are approaching this by limiting the number of license plates they are handing out which you get sort of by a lottery system. However, at least in Shanghai, if you buy an EV you automatically get a plate. Their automakers have an incentive to offer TVs for everyone.)
Steve
Earlier this year GM announced it would discontinue the Chevy Bolt. Margins, I assume.
It has long been my assumption that Tesla would dominate the luxury segment of the EV market while Chinese brands controlled the rest.
Well at any rate, EV’s will not overtake ICE for a very long time UNLESS mandated. and if mandated that will have political implications.
Styles always originate with the upper class but don’t always spread successfully to the plebes. Some may wish it so, but, Democracy, you know.