In an op-ed in the Boston Globe Niall Ferguson gives us his version of what’s wrong with the world, not just here in the United States but in most of the developed world:
1. You can’t do anything about demographics, and for most democracies the demographics are terrible.
2. You have inherited welfare systems that transfer resources from younger to older voters, but the latter tend to be more numerous and turn out more in elections, so you can’t reform them and survive.
3. Your safety valve is that you can borrow from the bond market and interest rates are very low, but that’s now changing, and you can’t do anything about it, because central banks are independent.
4. Your aging population means that there’s an economic demand for foreign labor and foreign students, but immigration is politically unpopular, even when the immigrants come from northern Europe (e.g., Poland) and genuinely relieve skill shortages.
5. You might just be able to overcome these problems if there were a real external threat, but the truth is that ordinary people just aren’t that scared of Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, much less Kim Jong Un.
6. As for climate change, ask President Macron how his proposed fuel tax is going.
7. Finally, social media have made it almost impossible for you to control the narrative. You can tweet to your heart’s content, but you are firing a water pistol into an ocean of extreme views and fake news.
That’s an interesting take but it doesn’t quite describe what’s happening because it doesn’t address Japan. Japan is facing a demographic bottleneck much worse than the U. S. and worse than Germany, France, or the UK. It’s GDP growth rate is extremely low. It’s debt to GDP is extremely high—more than twice that of the United States. It has a much more expansive welfare system than the U. S.
Despite all of these Japan isn’t experiencing the political upheaval that the U. S., Germany, France, or the UK are? What’s different about Japan?
Although its GDP growth rate is practically flat, its per capita GDP continues to rise, it is very equal compared to the U. S. or European countries, and, related to this, its immigration rate is extremely low. Its social welfare spending is very low. There’s a lesson in here somewhere.
“There’s a lesson in here somewhere.”
Japanese culture. They revere and take care of their elderly by family, not government. They feel shame at handouts, er, redistribution, er, social services. Social conformity is more important than individuality; so they STFU. They think non-Japanese are just one step above monkeys.
Oh, and they are generally miserable.
Also, google Japan’s foreign workers, they employ various schemes to employ them without actually giving them citizenship. Something we ought to think about.
Japan is definitely not jumping on the multicultural bandwagon, not least because they are an extremely cohesive and racist society.
Strangely the American left seems silent on this. The Brits are a bunch of racists because of Brexit and opposition to too many Poles coming in the country, but no one says anything bad about Japan.
Views differ on this. I think it’s a form of paternalism, the 21st century version of “what can you expect from the wogs?”
As far as Japan, cohesion, and racism go, it’s not just ethnicity. The Japanese look on native Japanese who’ve spent any substantial amount of time outside of Japan with suspicion, as damaged goods.
“Strangely the American left seems silent on this.”
Why would they? They keep to themselves. If you ask people on the left they will largely say the same things said here, racist, cohesive and xenophobic, but they arent really out causing a lot of trouble.
Steve
Because if you believe something is a moral obligation, then you believe that it’s equally incumbent on everyone.
Sure, but there are so many better targets.
Maybe it’s a misperception, but the American left seems very invested in multiculturalism in a Europe. Asia, not so much.
Both population and GDP can decline as long as per caput GDP does not fall. In fact, declines in population and GDP are desirable.
Re Andy: “they are an extremely cohesive and racist society” Both cohesion and racism are very good and mutually support each other.