I agree with the last sentence of the Wall Street Journal editorial on the liberation of Mosul from DAESH:
There are no permanent victories in the Middle East, but the liberation of Mosul is an important milestone in the war against radical Islam.
but that’s about it. Any Iraqi government that’s remotely representative will inevitably tilt towards Iran. DAESH is a Sunni movement, fueled in part by money from rich Gulf Arabs, especially Saudis. I’ve expressed my skepticism about the Kurds in previous posts. I seriously doubt they’re as liberal and democratic as the advance press would lead you to believe. I do think they want a country of their own.
Can there be a stable government in Iraq, one that’s capable of rooting out remaining pockets of violent radical Islamists? The only stable government in Iraq would be a very loose federalism, something not acceptable to the majority of Iraqis. Herding the Sunni Arab population into the poverty-stricken and largely desolate west of Iraq is a formula for radicalization. The Turks will never accept an independent Kurdish state on their borders: the likelihood of such a state seeking to expand into adjacent areas of Turkey with Kurdish populations is just too strong.
It was an important milestone the first time we cleared it out. It will be an important milestone when we do it again in another ten or so years. Nothing much has changed in Iraq on the political side. We need to decide what value there is for us in going back.
Steve