What’s Happening in China?

I’m not sure of what to make of this report about China’s economy from Global Security Review:

Over two million Chinese workers have been laid off in recent months due to “over capacity.” Companies have been shut down as employers either sold their businesses or simply disappeared. These layoffs have increased the numbers of unemployed youth in urban areas, increasing the risk of social unrest.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has suggested sending China’s increasingly debt-prone youth to work in the country, in a “Second Cultural Revolution.” Few have taken the offer despite employment opportunities in farming, food processing, and rural tourism.

Let’s put that into some perspective. Two million sounds like a lot but the total number of employed persons in China is around three-quarters of a billion. Two million people represent about a third of one percent of China’s workforce.

I agree with a lot of what’s in the article but China is so large and the economic numbers we receive are so cooked I have no idea how we can discern what’s actually happening at this great distance. I doubt that we could tell that China had collapsed until it had already happened. Maybe not even then.

5 comments… add one
  • Ben Wolf Link

    China is re-orienting its export industries toward gold producing countries.

  • I don’t know whether that’s a wisecrack or not. If true, it would be very bad news for the United States (even though we’re the third greatest gold-producer).

  • Ben Wolf Link

    They’re issuing gold-backed futures contracts denominated in yuan in exchange for oil to reduce their need for the petrodollar. To do this they have to run surpluses to accumulate gold.

  • mikes shupp Link

    I doubt that Xi seriously meant that crack about “a second Cultural Revolution” or that listeners would have taken it for real.

    You read SF. Have you read Cixin Liu’s THE THREE BODY PROBLEM? It starts off during the first Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, and I think makes it clear that current Chinese view that period as Hell On Earth, or even worse.

  • Janis Gore Link

    Okay, Mr. Schuler. About this pain.

    Try Willie Nelson’s CBD:
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    If that doesn’t work, I’ll give your pain up as a lost cause, God bless you.

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