What’s Going On in Syria?

Speaking of reconciling conflicting data, what in the world is going on in Syria? Either the Syrian government is consolidating its control over Aleppo or it’s about to be ejected from it, either the U. S. is fighting DAESH or aiding it, and either the Turks are our allies or our foes depending upon which sources you read.

Moon of Alabama hints at an interesting explanation. The U. S. is attempting to mollify its various allies in the war against the Syrian regime (Turkey, the Kurds, the “moderate rebels”) and orchestrate a partition of Syria:

The Syrian government was barely alive when Russia intervened just 10 month ago. It has now regained a lot of its land and capabilities. The U.S. and Israeli plans for a divided Syria have been warded. The strategic landscape has been changed. That’s a lot of progress in a quite short time.

Surely Syria would like to be in a better situation, but its resources are limited and neither Russia nor Iran are willing to go all-in (and risk attacks on their homelands) to recover the last corners of the country. The deal with Turkey will prevent control of the U.S. over significant parts of Syria and the federalization of the country the neocons promote.

The interests of these allies are not reconcilable. They’re not just fighting the Syrian government or DAESH. They’re fighting each other. The task on our plate is not just like herding cats, it’s like herding rabid cats.

A fundamental principle in negotiation is that no agreement is possible when two parties insist on getting all of the same limited resource. The Turks don’t want an independent Kurdistan. The Kurds don’t want to commit resources to anything other than defending their homeland. As in Iraq the “moderate rebels” want a unified Syria with them in control and each faction of the opposition thinks it should be the one in control.

Meanwhile, the Syrian government, the Russians, and the Iranians continue their slow progress.