What’s “a Declining Power”?

In his most recent Washington Post column Fareed Zakaria asks a very good question: why is the Biden Administration driving Russia and China closer together?

The Biden administration has handled the Ukraine crisis intelligently and effectively, formulating a policy that could be described as “deterrence plus diplomacy.” It made credible threats about the costs of a Russian invasion and rallied its European allies in an impressive show of unity. And while (correctly) refusing to promise that Ukraine will be barred from NATO, it has offered to discuss almost everything else, from arms control to missile deployments.

This crisis, however, has highlighted a larger strategic failure, one that extends beyond this administration. One of the central rules of strategy is to divide your adversaries. But, increasingly, U.S. foreign policy is doing the opposite. Earlier this month, in a more-than-5,000-word document, Russia and China affirmed a “friendship” with “no limits.” The two powers appear to be closer to one another than at any time in 50 years.

but this is the part of the column that caught my eye:

For Russia — essentially a declining power — China’s support is a godsend. The most significant reason even tough sanctions against Russia might not work is that China, the world’s second-largest economy, could help. Russia recently announced new deals to sell more oil and gas to China, and Beijing could buy even more energy and other imports from the country. It could also let Moscow use various Chinese mechanisms and institutions to evade U.S. financial restrictions. “China is our strategic cushion,” Sergey Karaganov, a Kremlin adviser, told Nikkei. “We know that in any difficult situation, we can lean on it for military, political and economic support.”

To those who would argue that this is simply a case of two autocracies ganging up, it’s worth noting that it was not always thus. In 2014 (when both countries were also autocracies), China pointedly refused to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has still not recognized the annexation of Crimea. Similarly, Beijing did not support Russia’s intervention in Georgia and has expressed its support for that country’s territorial integrity and independence.

China and Russia are both adversaries of the West, but they are very different from one another. Lumping them together is a sign that ideology has triumphed over strategy in Washington these days. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a geopolitical spoiler state. It has invaded two neighbors, Georgia and Ukraine, and occupied territory in those countries, something almost unprecedented in Europe since World War II. It has reportedly used cyberwarfare to attack and weaken more than a dozen democracies, including the United States. It has supported allies such as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad with brute force. It has murdered its opponents, even when they are living in countries such as Germany and England. And as a petrostate, it actually benefits from instability, which can raise oil and gas prices.

China is different. It is a rising world power that seeks greater influence as it gains economic strength. It has been aggressive in its policies toward some nations, but as a big economic actor, it can credibly claim to want stability in the world. As Robert Manning noted in Foreign Policy in 2020, “Beijing is not trying to replace the IMF, World Bank, WTO, and other U.N. institutions; it is trying to play a more dominant role in them.”

That China has gained economic strength over the last 30 years is indisputable. Is it a “rising world power”? For that matter is Russia a “declining power”? Let’s see some objective criteria.

In China’s case its population continues to grow but its rate of increase has declined sharply—its population is expected to start declining soon. Indeed, that decline may already have started. Similarly, its GDP per capita continues to grow but that growth, too, has declined sharply. It’s just about the same as Russia’s and a fraction of ours.

In recent years China has expanded its foreign relations network. Its strongest bids for world power status may be in the several South American ports China has negotiated and presently has under construction. These include a “megaport” in Chancay, Peru and a newly-negotiated port in Argentina, on the Atlantic, a major milestone.

For years China’s “Belt and Road” strategy resulted in improving relations with many of its neighbors. Today it is embroiled in disputes with a number of them including South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, and Australia.

After a steep decline, Russia’s population is now roughly stable and its real per capita GDP is approximate stable as well. It remains the pre-eminent nuclear power in the world with a nuclear arsenal of about 4,500 warheads (compare with our 4,000).

IMO I find claims that Russia is declining suspect and, while China continues to strengthen, the rate appears to be slowing. For our part I think we’re certainly declining in a relative sense. Whether we’re declining absolutely depends on definitions. Despite some recent PR losses I still think we have the most capable military on the planet.